zitron.md

# OpenAI Is A Bad Business

Edward Zitron
Oct 2, 2024

OpenAI, a non-profit AI company that will lose anywhere from $4 billion to $5 billion this year, [will at some point in the next six or so months convert into a for-profit AI company](https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/openai-remove-non-profit-control-give-sam-altman-equity-sources-say-2024-09-25/?ref=wheresyoured.at), at which point it will continue to lose money in exactly the same way. Shortly after this news broke, Chief Technology Officer Mira Murati resigned, followed by Chief Research Officer Bob McGrew and VP of Research, Post Training Barret Zoph, [leaving OpenAI with exactly three of its eleven cofounders](https://www.theverge.com/2024/9/27/24255177/openai-safety-mira-murati-quit-sam-altman-cofounders-exodus?ref=wheresyoured.at) remaining.

This coincides suspiciously with OpenAI's increasingly-absurd fundraising efforts, where ([as I predicted in late July](https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/#:~:text=Raise%20more%20money%20than%20any%20startup%20has%20ever%20raised%20in%20history%2C%20and%20continue%20to%20do%20so%20at%20a%20pace%20totally%20unseen%20in%20the%20history%20of%20financing.)) OpenAI has raised the largest venture-backed fundraise of all time [$6.6 billion](https://fortune.com/2024/10/02/openai-officially-raises-6-6-billion-funding-deal-157-billion-valuation-sam-altman-thrive-capital/?ref=wheresyoured.at)— at a valuation of $157 billion.

> **EDITOR'S NOTE:** Not long after this newsletter published, OpenAI's funding round closed. As a result, this newsletter reflects the round as pending, when it has now closed.

Yet despite the high likelihood of the round's success, there are quite a few things to be worried about. [The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Apple is no longer in talks to join the round](https://www.wsj.com/tech/apple-no-longer-in-talks-to-join-openai-investment-round-e3be3e66?ref=wheresyoured.at), and while one can only speculate about its reasoning, it's fair to assume that Apple ([AAPL](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/?ref=wheresyoured.at)), on signing a non-disclosure agreement, was able to see exactly what OpenAI had (or had not) got behind the curtain, as well as its likely-grim financial picture, and decided to walk away. Nevertheless, both NVIDIA ([NVDA](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/NVDA/?ref=wheresyoured.at)) and Microsoft ([MSFT](https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/MSFT/?ref=wheresyoured.at)) are both investing, with Microsoft, according to the Wall Street Journal, pushing another $1 billion into the company — [though it's unclear whether that's in real money or in "cloud credits" that allow OpenAI to continue using Microsoft's cloud](https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/#:~:text=The%20Microsoft%20(and%20Valuation)%20Problem).

Yet arguably the most worrying sign is that [SoftBank's Vision Fund will be investing $500 million in OpenAI](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/softbank-to-invest-500-million-in-openai?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at). While it might seem a little weird to be worried about a half-billion dollar check, SoftBank — [best-known for sinking $16 billion or more into WeWork](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/timeline-softbanks-bets-wework-totaled-194817277.html?ref=wheresyoured.at) and [getting swindled by its founder](https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2024/03/25/adam-neumanns-500m-gamble-the-billionaires-bid-to-reclaim-wework/?ref=wheresyoured.at), and [dumping a further €900m into Wirecard](https://www.ft.com/content/996c3c9b-c095-42c9-baf9-d07b1b319c9d?ref=wheresyoured.at), which turned out to be an outright fraud, with [one founder now a fugitive from justice in Russia](https://www.ft.com/content/f15610a0-e94d-4672-bc73-f2e5e364f2d1?ref=wheresyoured.at) — is some of the dumbest money in the market, and a sign that any company taking it is likely a little desperate.

While SoftBank has had a number of hits — NVIDIA, ARM and Alibaba, to name a few — [it is famous for piling cash into terrible businesses](https://www.valuewalk.com/softbanks-worst-startup-investments/?ref=wheresyoured.at), like Katerra ([a construction company that died despite a $2 billion investment in 2021](https://www.architecturalrecord.com/articles/15166-katerra-is-shutting-down?ref=wheresyoured.at#:~:text=Mass%20timber%20construction%20company%20Katerra,%2Dlaminated%20timber%20(CLT).)) and Zume Pizza ([a robotic pizza company with a product that never worked that closed after raising more than $400 million, with $375 million coming from SoftBank](https://www.axios.com/2023/06/12/softbank-pizza-robot-shuts-down-zume-445-million?ref=wheresyoured.at)).

> No, really, the SoftBank Vision Fund is *in a bad way.*[Last year SoftBank's Vision Fund posted a record loss of *$32 billion*](https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/softbank-vision-fund-investment-loss/?ref=wheresyoured.at#:~:text=SoftBank's%20Vision%20Fund%20unit,the%20unit%20suffered%20last%20year.)after years of ridiculous investments, a year after CEO Masayoshi Son promised investors that there would be [a "stricter selection of investments."](https://news.crunchbase.com/venture/softbank-vision-fund-didi-uber-son/?ref=wheresyoured.at) [One might think that three years of straight losses would humble Son](https://www.wsj.com/business/earnings/softbank-group-posts-narrowed-annual-loss-on-tech-funds-recovery-090b33d7?ref=wheresyoured.at), and you would be wrong. He said in June that he was ["born to realize artificial superintelligence," adding that he was "super serious about it.](https://fortune.com/2024/06/27/softbank-ceo-masayoshi-son-born-to-create-artificial-super-intelligence/?ref=wheresyoured.at)
>
> [One of Son's greatest inspirations (who he begged simply to see the face of when he flew to meet him when he was 16-years-old) is Den Fujita, the thankfully-dead founder of McDonald's Japan](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-10-11/how-a-16-year-old-masayoshi-son-scored-a-meeting-with-a-famous-executive?ref=wheresyoured.at), and the author of a book called "The Jewish Way of Doing Business," which suggested that Jews had taken over the business world and implored businesspeople to copy them, [while also suggesting that Jews had settled in Osaka 1000 years ago, making the people there "craftier," a comment that McDonald's had to issue a public apology for](https://www.jta.org/archive/mcdonalds-chairman-apologizes-for-comments-of-japanese-partner?ref=wheresyoured.at).

In any case, OpenAI will likely prevail and raise this round from a cadre of investors that [will have to invest a minimum of $250 million](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-asks-investors-to-fork-over-250-million?ref=wheresyoured.at) to put money behind a company that has never turned a profit, that has no path to profitability, and has yet to create a truly meaningful product outside of Sam Altman's marketing expertise. This round is a farce — a group delusion, one borne of one man's uncanny ability to convince clueless idiots that he has some unique insight, despite the fact that all signs point to him knowing about as much as they do, allowing him to prop up an unsustainable, unprofitable and directionless blob of a company as a means of getting billions of dollars of equity in the company — [and no, I don't care what he says to the contrary](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/09/26/openais-sam-altman-tells-employees-he-didnt-get-giant-equity-stake.html?ref=wheresyoured.at).

Last week, [the New York Times reported that OpenAI would lose $5 billion in 2024](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html?ref=wheresyoured.at) ([which The Information had estimated back in July](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/why-openai-could-lose-5-billion-this-year?ref=wheresyoured.at)), and that the company expected to raise the price of ChatGPT's premium product to $44-a-month over the next five years, and intended to increase the price of ChatGPT to $22-a-month by the end of 2024, [a pale horse I've warned you of in the past](https://www.wheresyoured.at/burst-damage/#:~:text=Any%20price%20increases%20by%20OpenAI%20or%20Anthropic%3A%20If%20they%20start%20needing%20to%20make%20more%20money%2C%20they%20could%20get%20desperate.%20This%20will%20be%20a%20sign%20their%20unit%20economics%20are%20no%20longer%20working%20out%20with%20their%20investors.).

Interestingly (and worryingly), the article also confirms another hypothesis of mine — that "fund-raising material also signaled that OpenAI would need to continue raising money over the next year because its expenses grew in tandem with the number of people using its products" - in simpler terms, that [*OpenAI will likely raise $6.5 billion in funding, and then have to do so again in short order, likely in perpetuity*](https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/#:~:text=Assuming%20everything%20exists,in%20business%20history.).

The Times also reports that OpenAI is making estimates that I would describe as "fucking ridiculous." OpenAI's monthly revenue hit $300 million in August, and the company expects to make $3.7 billion in revenue this year (the company will, as mentioned, lose $5 billion anyway), yet the company says that it expects to make $11.6 billion in 2025 and ***$100 billion by 2029,*** a statement so egregious that I am surprised it's not some kind of financial crime to say it out loud.

For some context, Microsoft makes about $250 billion a year, Google about $300 billion a year, and Apple about $400 billion a year.

To be abundantly clear, as it stands, OpenAI currently spends $2.35 to make $1.

OpenAI loses money every single time that somebody uses their product, and while it might make money selling premium subscriptions, I severely doubt it’s turning a profit on these customers, and certainly losing money on any and all power users. As I've said before, [I believe there's also a subprime AI crisis brewing](https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/) because OpenAI's API services — which lets people integrate its various models into external products — is currently priced at a loss, and increasing prices will likely make this product unsustainable for many businesses currently relying on these discounted rates.

As I've said before, [OpenAI is unprofitable, unsustainable and untenable in its current form](https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/#:~:text=I%20ultimately%20believe,to%20develop%20them.), but I think it's important to explain exactly *how* untenable it is, and I'm going to start with a few statements:

* For OpenAI to hit $11.6 billion of revenue by the end of 2025, it will have to more than triple its revenue.
* At the current cost of revenue, it will cost OpenAI more than $27 billion to hit that revenue target. Even if it somehow halves its costs, OpenAI will still lose $2 billion.
  + However, OpenAI's costs are likely to increase, because (as the New York Times notes) if this company grows by 300%, it's very likely that the free user base of ChatGPT increases along with it, burdening the company with more costs.
  + Even a $2 price increase (the first expected price hike for ChatGPT Plus, as the company reportedly works towards charging $44 per month) and similar price hikes on the Teams and Enterprise plans won’t do much to stem the flow of red ink on its balance sheet.
  + GPT-4 — and this isn't inclusive of GPT-4o — cost $100 million to train, and [more complex future models will cost hundreds of millions or even a billion dollars to train](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/ai-models-that-cost-dollar1-billion-to-train-are-in-development-dollar100-billion-models-coming-soon-largest-current-models-take-only-dollar100-million-to-train-anthropic-ceo?ref=wheresyoured.at). The Information [also estimated back in July that OpenAI's training costs would balloon to $3 billion in 2024](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/why-openai-could-lose-5-billion-this-year?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at).
* OpenAI has not had anything truly important since the launch of GPT-3.5, and its recent o-1 model has [not been particularly impressive](https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/). It's also going to be much, much more expensive to run, as the "chain-of-thought" "reasoning" that it does requires a bunch of extra calculations ([an indeterminate amount that OpenAI is deliberately hiding](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-o1-model-hides-reasoning-chatgpt-bans-users-for-asking-2024-9?ref=wheresyoured.at)), and OpenAI can't even seem to come up with a meaningful use case.
* OpenAI's products are increasingly-commoditized, with Google, Meta, Amazon and even Microsoft building generative AI models to compete. Worse-still, these models are all using effectively-identical training data (and [they're running out](https://www.wheresyoured.at/bubble-trouble/)!), which makes their outputs (and by extension their underlying technology) increasingly similar.
* OpenAI's cloud business — meaning other companies connecting their services to OpenAI's API — is remarkably small, to the point that it suggests there's weaknesses in the generative AI industry writ large. It’s extremely worrying that the biggest player in the game only makes $1 billion (less than 30% of its revenue) from providing access to their models.

And, fundamentally, I can find no compelling evidence that suggests that OpenAI will be able to sustain this growth. In fact, I can find no historical comparison, and believe that OpenAI's growth is already stumbling.

Let's take a look, shall we?

## **How Does OpenAI Make Money?**

To do this right, we have to lay out exactly how OpenAI makes money.

[According to the New York Times,](https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/27/technology/openai-chatgpt-investors-funding.html?ref=wheresyoured.at) OpenAI expects ChatGPT to make about $2.7 billion in revenue in 2024, with an additional $1 billion coming from "other businesses using its technology."

Let's break this down**.**

### [**ChatGPT Plus**](https://openai.com/chatgpt/pricing/?ref=wheresyoured.at)**, Teams, and Enterprise — 73% of revenue (approximately $2.7 billion).**

* OpenAI sells access to [ChatGPT Plus](https://openai.com/index/chatgpt-plus/?ref=wheresyoured.at) to consumers for $20 a month, offering faster response times, "priority access to new features," and 24/7 access to OpenAI's models, with "5x more messages for GPT-4o," access image generation, data analysis and web browsing. Importantly, OpenAI can use anything you do as training data, unless you explicitly opt-out.
* OpenAI sells access to a "Teams" version of ChatGPT Plus, a self-service product that allows you to share chatbots between team users, costing $25-a-user-a-month if paid annually (so $300 a year per-user), and $30-a-user-a-month if paid monthly. From this point on, your data is excluded from that used to train OpenAI's models by default.
* OpenAI sells "enterprise" subscriptions that include an expanded context window for longer prompts (meaning you can give more detailed instructions), admin controls, and "enhanced support and ongoing account management."
  + It isn't clear how much this costs, but [a Reddit thread from a year ago](https://www.reddit.com/r/ChatGPT/comments/16r3hfi/enterprise_pricing/?ref=wheresyoured.at) suggests it's $60-a-user-a-month, with a minimum of 150 seats on an annual contract.
  + I don’t know for certain, but it’s likely OpenAI offers some kind of bulk discount for large customers that buy in volume, as is the case with pretty much every enterprise SaaS business. I’ll explain my reasoning later in this piece.
  + Assuming this is the case, that’s bad for OpenAI, as generative AI isn’t like any other SaaS product. Economies of scale don’t really work here, as servicing each user has its own cost (namely, the cloud computing power used to answer queries). That cost-per-user doesn’t decrease as you add more customers. You need more servers. More GPUs.
  + Cutting prices, therefore, only serves to slash whatever meager margins exist on those customers, or to turn those potentially-profitable customers into a loss center.

### **Licensing Access To Models And Services — 27% of revenue (approximately $1 billion).**

* OpenAI makes the rest of its money by licensing access to its models and services via its API. One thing you notice, [when looking at its pricing page](https://openai.com/api/pricing/?ref=wheresyoured.at), is the variety of models and APIs available, and the variation in pricing that exists.
* OpenAI offers a *lot* of options: its most powerful GPT-4o model; the less-powerful-yet-cheaper GPT-4o-mini model; the "reasoning" model o1 (and its "mini" counterpart); a "text embeddings" API that is used primarily for tasks where you want to identify anomalies or relationships in text, or classify stuff in text; an "assistants API" for building assistants into an application (which in turn connect to one of the other models, which includes things like interpreting code or searching for files); three different image generation models; three different audio models; and a bunch of older legacy APIs and models.
  + [Matt Lynley recently put out an excellent rundown of all the options](https://supervised.news/p/a-rare-opening-against-datadog?ref=wheresyoured.at).
* In many cases, customers can get a 50% discount by using the Batch API. This delays completion by as much as 24 hours and requires all tasks to be submitted in one batch, rather than as-and-when. This might be useful for using GPT to dig through masses of data.
  + For example, when using the batch API, the cost of using GPT-4o drops from $5 per 1m input tokens to $2.5, and from $15 per 1m output tokens to $7.5.
  + Batch pricing is not available for o1-preview.
  + Additionally, this discount is not available when buying training tokens for fine-tuning models (although you still get the same discount for input and output tokens).
  + Batch pricing is not available for DALL-E, the Assistants API, or the audio models.
  + It’s also not available for GPT-3.5-turbo-instruct and the latest 4-o model.
* The pricing of these products gets a little messy, much like it does with basically every cloud company.
* [OpenAI also makes around $200 million a year selling access to its models through Microsoft, according to Bloomberg](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-12/openai-doubles-annualized-revenue-to-3-4-billion-information?ref=wheresyoured.at).
* In conclusion, this means that OpenAI makes roughly $800 million a year by directly selling access to their API, with a further $200m coming from an external channel.

As a result of these numbers, I have major concerns about the viability of OpenAI's business, and the generative AI market at large. If OpenAI — the most prominent name in all of generative AI — is only making a billion dollars a year from this, what does that say about the larger growth trajectory of this company, or actual usage of generative AI products?

I'll get to that in a bit.

First, we've gotta talk about the dollars.

### **The Revenue Problem**

So, as it stands, OpenAI makes the majority — more than 70% — of its revenue from selling premium access to ChatGPT.

A few weeks ago, [The Information reported](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openai-coo-says-chatgpt-passed-11-million-paying-subscribers?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at) that ChatGPT Plus had "more than 10 million paying subscribers," and that it had 1 million more that were paying for  "higher-priced plans for business teams." As I've laid out above, this means that OpenAI is making about $200 million a month from consumer subscribers, but "business teams" is an indeterminate split between teams ($25-a-user-a-month paid annually) and enterprise (at least $60-a-user-a-month, paid annually, with a minimum of 150 seats).

One important detail: [100,000 of the 1 million business customers are workers at management consultancy PwC](https://techcrunch.com/2024/05/29/openai-signs-on-100k-pwc-workers-to-its-chatgpt-enterprise-tier-as-the-consultant-becomes-its-first-resale-partner/?ref=wheresyoured.at), which has also become OpenAI's "first partner for selling enterprise offerings to other businesses."  It isn't clear whether these are enterprise accounts or teams accounts, or whether PwC is paying full price (I'd wager it isn’t).

Here’s how this would play out in revenue terms across several assumed divisions of the customer base, and an assumption that every Teams customer is paying $27.5 (that plan costs either $25 or $30, depending on whether you pay monthly or yearly, but for the sake of fairness, I went with the middle ground). From there, we can run some hypothetical monthly revenue numbers based on a million "higher-priced plans for business teams."

* 25% Enterprise, 75% Teams: $35,625,000
* 50% Enterprise, 50% Teams: $43,750,000
* 75% Enterprise, 25% Teams: $51,875,000

Sadly, I don't think things are that good, and I honestly don't think these would be particularly-impressive numbers to begin with.

We can actually make a more-precise estimate by working backwards from the New York Times' estimates. ChatGPT Plus has 10 million customers, making OpenAI around $2.4 billion dollars a year (ten million users spending $20 each month equates to $200 million. Multiply that by 12, you get $2.4 billion). This means that business users make up about $300 million a year in revenue, or $25 million a month.

That is, to be frank, *extremely bad.* These are estimates, but even if they were *doubled*, these would not be particularly exciting numbers.

For all the excitement about OpenAI's revenue — putting aside the fact that it spends $2.35 to make $1 — the majority of the money it makes is from subscriptions to ChatGPT Plus *for consumers,* though one can fairly say there are professionals that use it under the consumer version too.

While 10 million paying subscribers might *seem* like a lot, "ChatGPT" is effectively to generative AI what "Google" is to search. Ten million people paying for this is table stakes.

OpenAI has been covered by effectively every single media outlet, is mentioned in almost every single conversation about AI (even when it's not about generative AI!), and has the backing and marketing push of Microsoft and the entirety of Silicon Valley behind it. [ChatGPT has over 200 million *weekly* users](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/29/24231685/openai-chatgpt-200-million-weekly-users?ref=wheresyoured.at), and the New York Times reports that OpenAI has "350 million people use [OpenAI's] services each month as of June" (though it's unclear if that includes those using the API). Collectively, this means that OpenAI — the most popular company in the industry — can only convert about 3% of its users.

This might be because it's not obvious why anyone should pay for a premium subscription. Paying for ChatGPT Plus doesn't dramatically change the product, nor does it offer a particularly-compelling new use case for anyone other than power users. As a company, OpenAI is flat-out terrible at product. While it may be able to attract hundreds of millions of people to dick around with ChatGPT (losing money with every prompt), it's hard to convert them because you have to, on some level, show the user what ChatGPT can do to get them to pay for it… and there isn't really much you can charge for, other than limiting how many times they can use it.

And, if we're honest, it still isn't obvious why anyone should use ChatGPT in the first place, other than the fact everybody is talking about it. You can ask it to generate something — a picture, a few paragraphs, perhaps a question — and at that point say "cool" and move on. I can absolutely see how there are people who regularly use ChatGPT's natural language prompts to answer questions that they can't quite phrase (a word that's on the tip of their tongue, a question they're not sure how to phrase, or to brainstorm something) but beyond that, there really is no "sticky" part of this product beyond "a search engine that talks back to you."

That product is *extremely* commoditized. The free version of ChatGPT is effectively identical to the free version of Anthropic's Claude, Meta's AI assistant, Microsoft's Copilot, and even Twitter's "Grok." They all use similar training data, all give similar outputs, and are all free. Why would you pay for ChatGPT Plus when Meta or Microsoft will give you their own spin on the same flavor? Other than pure brand recognition, what is it that ChatGPT does that Copilot (powered by ChatGPT) doesn't? And does that matter to the average user?

I'd argue it doesn't. I'd also argue that those willing to pay for a "Plus" subscription are more likely to use the platform way, way more than free users, which in turn may ([as one Redditor hypothesized regarding Anthropic's "Claude Pro" subscription](https://www.reddit.com/r/ClaudeAI/comments/1egrxmc/anthropic_is_definitely_losing_money_on_pro/?ref=wheresyoured.at)) lose it the revenue on said premium subscriber. While there's a chance that OpenAI could have a chunk of users that aren't particularly active, one cannot run a business based on selling stuff you hope that people won't use.

> **A note on “free” products:** Some of you may suggest that OpenAI having 350 million free users may be a good sign, likely comparing it to the early days of Facebook, or Google. It’s really important to note how *different* ChatGPT is to those products. While Facebook and Google had cloud infrastructure costs, they were dramatically lower than OpenAI’s, and both Facebook and Google had (and have) immediate ways to monetize free users.
>
> Both Meta and Google monetize free users through advertising that is informed by their actions on the platform, which involves the user continually feeding the company information about their preferences based on their browsing habits across their platforms. As a result, a “free” user is quite valuable to these companies, and becomes more so as they interact with the platform more.
>
> This isn’t really the case with OpenAI. Each free user of ChatGPT is, at best, a person that can be converted into a paying user. While OpenAI can use their inputs as potential training data, that’s infinitesimal value compared to operating costs. Unlike Facebook and Google, ChatGPT’s most frequent free users actually become less valuable over time, and become a burden on a system that already burns money.

I’ll touch on customer churn later, but one more note about ChatGPT Plus users: as with any other consumer-centric subscription product, these customers are far more likely to cut their spending when they no longer feel like they’re getting value from their product, or when their household budgets demand it. Netflix — the biggest name in streaming — [lost a million customers in 2022](https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62226912?ref=wheresyoured.at), around the time of the cost-of-living crisis (and, from 2025, it [plans to stop reporting subscriber numbers altogether](https://informitv.com/2024/04/19/netflix-will-drop-subscriber-number-reporting/?ref=wheresyoured.at))

ChatGPT Plus is likely, for many people, a “lifestyle product.” And the problem is that, when people lose their jobs or inflation hikes, these products are the first to get slashed from the household budget.

OpenAI also has a unique problem that makes it entirely different to most SaaS solutions — the cost of delivering the solution. While 3% conversion of free customers to paying customers might *regularly* be on the low side of "good," said solutions are nowhere near as expensive as running software using generative AI.

There's also another wrinkle.

If the majority of OpenAI's revenue — over 70% — comes from people paying for ChatGPT Plus, then that heavily suggests the majority of its compute costs come from what is arguably its least-profitable product. The only alternative is that OpenAI's compute costs are so high that, despite making  two-thirds of its revenue, ChatGPT creates so much overhead that it sours the rest of the business.

You see, ChatGPT Plus is *not a great business*. It's remarkable that OpenAI found 10 million people to pay for it, but how do you grow that to 20 million, or 40 million?

These aren't idle questions, either. At present, OpenAI makes $225 million a month — $2.7 billion a year — by selling premium subscriptions to ChatGPT. To hit a revenue target of $11.6 billion in 2025, OpenAI would need to increase revenue from ChatGPT customers by 310%.

If we consider the current ratio of Plus subscriptions to Teams and Enterprise subscriptions — about 88.89% to 11.11% — OpenAI would need to find 18.29 million paying users (assuming a price increase of $2 a month), while also retaining every single one of its current ChatGPT Plus users at a new price point, for a total $7.4 billion, or $616 million or so a month. It would also have to make $933 million in revenue from its business or enterprise clients, which, again, would require OpenAI to more-than-triple their current users.

OpenAI's primary revenue source is one of the most easily-commoditized things in the world — a Large Language Model in a web browser — and its competitor is Mark Zuckerberg, a petty king with a huge warchest that can never, ever be fired, even with significant investor pressure. Even if that wasn't the case, the premium product that OpenAI sells is far from endearing, still looking for a killer app a year-and-a-half into its existence, with its biggest competitor being the *free version of ChatGPT.*

There are ways that OpenAI could potentially turn this around, but even a battalion of experienced salespeople will still need paying, and will have the immediate job of "increase revenue by 300%" for a product that most people have trouble explaining.

No, really. What *is* ChatGPT? Can you give me an answer that actually explains what the product does? What is the compelling use case that makes this a must-have?

I am hammering this point because *this is the majority of OpenAI's revenue*. OpenAI lives and dies on the revenue gained from ChatGPT, a product that hasn't meaningfully changed since it launched beyond adding new models that do, for most users, exactly the same thing. [While some might find ChatGPT's voice mode interesting](https://www.theverge.com/2024/8/15/24220378/openai-advanced-voice-mode-uncanny-valley?ref=wheresyoured.at), "interesting" just isn't good enough today.

And to drill down further, *the majority of OpenAI's revenue is from ChatGPT Plus, not its Enterprise or Teams product, meaning that hiring a sales team is far from practical.* How do you sell this to consumers, or professionals? Even Microsoft, which has a vast marketing apparatus and deep pockets, struggled to sell Copilot — which is based on OpenAI’s GPT models — on its weird (and presumably expensive) Superbowl ads, or on the countless commercials that dotted the 2024 Olympic Games.

To triple users, ChatGPT must meaningfully change, and do so immediately, or disclose multiple meaningful, powerful use cases that are so impressive that 18 million new people agree to pay $22 a month. That is an incredible — and some might say insane — goal, and one that I do not think this company is capable of achieving.

Yet this is far from the most worrying part of the current OpenAI story.

### **The Cloud Services Problem**

What's astounded me about this whole story is how *little* of OpenAI's revenue comes from providing other companies the means to integrate generative AI into their systems, for two big reasons:

1. Assuming that OpenAI makes $1 billion a year selling API access (and thus letting you integrate their models into your products), it suggests that even the biggest company in generative AI can't find enough customers to make its cloud services viable.
2. This in turn suggests that there is a remarkably small amount of demand for generative AI integrations, or considered another way, that the companies connecting to OpenAI aren't making them very much money.
   1. This is when things get confusing. [According to The Information](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-annualized-revenue-doubles-to-3-4-billion-since-late-2023?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at), OpenAI is projected to get an annualized $200 million from selling access to its models via Microsoft's Azure OpenAI business, where it gets a 20% cut of all revenue. That suggests that Microsoft was, at the time (in June), on course to make a billion dollars in revenue a year from OpenAI's models. Yet a story from two weeks later suggested that OpenAI was "[exceeding what Microsoft makes from an equivalent business](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/in-a-surprise-openai-is-selling-more-of-its-ai-models-than-microsoft-is?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at)."
   2. Compare that to the story from the New York Times, which suggested that OpenAI is still only on course to make one billion dollars from selling access to its own models — which highly suggests that growth has plateaued for its cloud services, and that Microsoft is making about as much as OpenAI is selling access to their services.
   3. It also highlights how ineffective OpenAI’s own sales channels are. If a reseller — which Microsoft effectively is — can match OpenAI’s own sales figures, it suggests that OpenAI isn’t really good at selling its own stuff. Or, perhaps, that the people most likely to use OpenAI’s models and APIs would rather buy access through their existing cloud infrastructure provider than directly from the developer itself.
   4. And so, it has two options: Either it relies on partnerships and external sales channels, allowing it to potentially increase the gross number of customers, but at the expense of the money it makes, or it can build a proper sales and marketing team.
   5. Both options kinda suck. The latter option also promises to be expensive, costly, and has no guarantees of success.
3. There’s very little information about how many developers actively use OpenAI’s models and APIs in their code. At the 2024 OpenAI DevDay event — its  developer conference, which took place on October 1 — the company [said that over 3,000,000 developers are building apps using OpenAI’s infrastructure](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/01/openais-devday-brings-realtime-api-and-other-treats-for-ai-app-developers/?ref=wheresyoured.at). That works out to about $333 per developer.
   1. To be fair, any SaaS company that offers API integrations — think Twilio — has a large chunk of users that are either hobbyists, or people just experimenting with a technology out of curiosity. That demographic inevitably skews the average revenue per developer.
   2. I imagine that OpenAI — by virtue of being the biggest name in generative AI — has a disproportionate number of those non-paying or low-paying users. People who either made an account, but never actually used it, or spent $10 on building some passion project that they can brag about on Twitter or Hacker News, but never actually commercialize.
   3. I also imagine that some companies are using GPT internally, and that these probably account for a huge proportion of its API/model revenue, especially considering that there aren’t many hugely popular consumer apps using GPT.
   4. PWC — which, as mentioned earlier, recently bought 100,000 ChatGPT Enterprise seats for its own internal use — also has a custom GPT model that it uses in-house called (and I swear I’m not making this up) ChatPWC. According to its 2023 financial review, [PWC has around 364,000 employees](https://www.pwc.com/gx/en/news-room/press-releases/2023/pwc-global-revenues-rise-to-record-us-53-1-billion.html?ref=wheresyoured.at).
   5. I can easily imagine this company being one of OpenAI’s “whales” — even though the reviews of ChatPWC on the PWC subreddit are mixed at best, with some [finding the service actually useful](https://www.reddit.com/r/PwC/comments/1aswlj8/comment/kquep7y/?ref=wheresyoured.at), and others describing it [as “absolutely shite.”](https://www.reddit.com/r/PwC/comments/1aswlj8/comment/kqtgi0s/?ref=wheresyoured.at)
   6. Let’s go back to Twilio — a company that makes it easy to send SMS messages and push notifications. Over the past quarter, it made around $1bn in revenue. That’s what OpenAI made from renting out its models/APIs over the past year.
   7. Twilio also made roughly $4bn over the past four quarters — which is more than OpenAI’s projected revenue for the entirety of 2024. OpenAI, I remind you, is the most hyped company in tech right now, and it’s aiming for a $150bn valuation. Twilio’s market cap is, at the time of writing, just under $10bn.
   8. Does this sound like an in-demand technology to you? Does this sound like something with a vast, untapped market?
4. One last thing: At the latest OpenAI DevDay event, the company said it had [reduced the cost of accessing its APIs by 99 percent over the past two years](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/01/openais-devday-brings-realtime-api-and-other-treats-for-ai-app-developers/?ref=wheresyoured.at) — although TechCrunch noted that this was likely due to competition from Meta and Google.
   1. Remember when I said that generative AI was an incredibly commoditized product?

In the event that OpenAI and Microsoft are each making about a billion dollars in annualized revenue — again, these are estimates based on current growth trajectories — it heavily suggests that there is...*two billion dollars of revenue? For Microsoft and OpenAI combined?*

That's god damn pathetic! That's really, really bad! And the fact these "annualized" figures have changed so little since June means that growth has slowed, because otherwise said numbers would have increased (as "annualized" is based on projections).

Let me explain my reasoning a bit. “Annualized” revenue is a somewhat-vague term that can mean many things, but [taking The Information’s definition](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/openais-annualized-revenue-doubles-to-3-4-billion-since-late-2023?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at) from mid-June (when annualized revenue was $3.4 billion), annualized revenue is “a measure of the past month’s revenue multiplied by 12.” That suggests that OpenAI’s revenue in that month was $283 million, a number which the New York Times updated in their piece, saying that OpenAI made $300 million of revenue in the month of August, which works out to $3.6 billion in annualized revenue, and OpenAI expects to hit $3.7 billion this year, which works out to $308 million.

Just so we’re abundantly clear — this means that OpenAI, unquestionably the leader and most-prominent brand and the first thought anybody will have when integrating generative AI, *is only making* *about $80 million a month selling access to its models?*

This heavily-suggests that generative AI, as a technology, *doesn’t necessarily have a product-market fit.* [According to a survey by Andreessen Horowitz earlier in the year](https://archive.is/oTBiV?ref=wheresyoured.at#selection-827.0-835.1), “the 2023 market share of closed-source models [was estimated at] 80 to 90%, with the majority of share going to OpenAI.” Another [survey from IOT Analytics published late last year](https://iot-analytics.com/leading-generative-ai-companies/?ref=wheresyoured.at) suggests that number might look a little bit different, with 39% of the market share going to OpenAI and 30% going to Microsoft.

Assuming that the latter numbers are true, this suggests that the generative AI market is incredibly small. If OpenAI — which dominates with, I’d wager, at least a 30% market share — is only making $1 billion a year from selling access to its models, and at this stage in the massively-inflated hype bubble, there may not even be $10 billion of annual revenue from companies integrating generative AI into their products. And let’s be honest, this is where *all* of the money should be. If this stuff is the future of everything, why is the revenue stream so painfully weak? Why isn’t generative AI in everything — not just big apps and services hoping to ride a wave as it crests, oblivious to the imminent collapse — but *all* apps, and present in a big way, where it’s core to the app’s functionality?

OpenAI making so little selling access to their models suggests that, despite the hype-cycle, there either isn’t the interest in integrating these products from developers, or these integrations aren’t that useful, attractive or impressive to users. Again, these products are charged on usage — and so, it’s possible for generative AI to be integrated into a service, but not actually drive much revenue for OpenAI.

While ChatGPT has brand recognition, companies integrating OpenAI’s models in their products are far more indicative of the long-term health of both the company and the industry itself, because if *OpenAI can’t convince people to integrate and use this shit, do you really think other companies are succeeding?*

There are two counterarguments:

1. OpenAI is struggling to sign up developers, and this problem is unique to OpenAI.
   1. This argument is easily-refuted. [Microsoft is on course to make a billion dollars selling OpenAI’s models themselves this year](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/in-a-surprise-openai-is-selling-more-of-its-ai-models-than-microsoft-is?rc=c48ukx&ref=wheresyoured.at), which only reinforces my point that the generative AI market is small. Again, if Microsoft can’t make more than a billion dollars on this, how much could the rest of the market be making?
2. OpenAI has tons of adoption, but it’s deliberately underpricing their models to scale.
   1. This is perhaps the most plausible, as by its own admission, OpenAI has reduced the cost of its APIs by 99 percent over the past two years.
   2. If that’s the case, then OpenAI *has* to raise prices. Also, Microsoft has to raise prices. And that will likely spook those who have gotten used to these subsidized prices — [which I discussed in The Subprime AI Crisis a few weeks ago](https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/) — and they’ll start to disentangle themselves from generative AI.
   3. If this is scale, it isn’t working very well? Unless, of course, OpenAI has realized that pricing is their only lever to pull that can influence adoption.

While I can’t say for certain, and I’ll happily admit if I’m wrong in the future, the numbers here suggest that OpenAI’s cloud services business — as in integrating its supposedly industry-leading technology into other products — is nowhere near as viable a business as selling subscriptions to ChatGPT, which in turn suggests that there is either a lack of interest in integrating generative AI, a lack of adoption once said integration has happened, or a lack of usage by users of features powered by generative AI itself.

The only other avenue is that OpenAI isn’t charging what it believes these services are worth.

### **The “Staying Alive” Problem**

As discussed earlier in the piece, OpenAI needs to more-than-triple revenue in the next 15 months to hit $11.6 billion in sales. Furthermore, at its current burn rate, OpenAI is currently spending $2.35 to make $1 — meaning that $11.6 billion in revenue will cost $27 billion to make.

While costs could foreseeably come down, all signs point to them increasing. As noted above, GPT-4 cost $100 million to train, and [more complex future models will cost hundreds of millions or even a billion dollars to train](https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/ai-models-that-cost-dollar1-billion-to-train-are-in-development-dollar100-billion-models-coming-soon-largest-current-models-take-only-dollar100-million-to-train-anthropic-ceo?ref=wheresyoured.at). The Information [also estimated back in July that OpenAI's training costs would balloon to $3 billion in 2024](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/why-openai-could-lose-5-billion-this-year?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at), and it’s fair to assume that models like o1 and GPT-5 (also known as “Orion”) will be significantly more expensive to train.

OpenAI also has a popularity problem. While it’s usually great news that a product has 300 million free users, every single time somebody uses the service costs OpenAI money, and lots of it. [The Information estimated OpenAI will spend around $4 billion on server costs](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/why-openai-could-lose-5-billion-this-year?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at#:~:text=On%20the%20cost%20side%2C%20OpenAI%20as%20of%20March%20was%20on%20track%20to%20spend%20nearly%20%244%20billion%20this%20year%20on%20renting%20Microsoft%E2%80%99s%20servers%20to%20power%20ChatGPT%20and%20its%20underlying%20LLMs%20(otherwise%20known%20as%20inference%20costs)%2C%20said%20a%20person%20with%20direct%20knowledge%20of%20the%20spending.) in 2024 to run ChatGPT and host other companies running services using GPT and its other models, effectively meaning that every dollar of revenue is immediately eaten by the costs of acquiring it. And that’s before you factor in paying the more-than 1,500 people that work at the company (another $1.5 billion in costs alone, and OpenAI expects to hire another 200 by the end of the year), and other costs like real estate and taxes.

As a result, [I am now updating my hypothesis](https://www.wheresyoured.at/to-serve-altman/). I believe that OpenAI, once it has raised its current ($6.5 billion to $7 billion) round, will have to raise another round of at least the same size by July 2025, if not sooner. To quote the New York Times’ reporting, “fund-raising material also signaled that OpenAI would need to continue raising money over the next year because its expenses grew in tandem with the number of people using its products.”

OpenAI could potentially reduce costs, but has shown little proof that it’s able to, and its [one attempt (the more efficient “Arrakis” model) failed to launch](https://www.businessinsider.com/openai-model-arrakis-dystopian-desert-world-dune-2023-10?ref=wheresyoured.at).

One would also imagine that this company — now burning $5 billion a year — is doing all it can to try and bring costs down, and even if it *isn’t*, I severely doubt that it’s possible to. After all, [Anthropic is facing exactly the same problem, and is on course to lose $2.7 billion in 2024 on $800 million in revenue](https://www.theinformation.com/briefings/anthropic-projected-to-burn-more-than-2-7-billion-in-cash-this-year?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at), which makes me think the likelihood of this being a quick fix is extremely low.

There is, however, another problem, one caused by their current fundraise.

OpenAI is, at present, raising $6.5 to $7 billion in capital at a $150 billion valuation. Assuming it completes this raise — which is likely to happen — it will mean that all future rounds have to be at either $150 billion or higher. A lower valuation (called a down-round) would both upset current investors and send a loud signal to the market that the company is having trouble, which overwhelmingly suggests that OpenAI’s only way to survive is to *raise its next round at a valuation of $200 billion*, and require yet another giant raise, likely of at least $10 billion.

For context, the biggest IPO valuation in US corporate history was Alibaba, which debuted onto the [New York Stock Exchange with a market cap of nearly $170bn](https://www.reuters.com/business/biggest-us-ipos-all-time-2021-11-10/?ref=wheresyoured.at). That figure is more than double the runner-up, Facebook, which had a value of $81bn. Are you telling me that OpenAI — a company that burns vast piles of money like the Joker in The Dark Knight, and has no obvious path to profitability, and a dubious addressable market — is worth more than Alibaba, which, even a decade ago, was a giant of a company?

Further souring the terms are its prior commitments to Microsoft, [which owns 75% of all future profits (ha!) until it recoups its $13 billion investment](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/why-microsoft-will-likely-keep-its-iron-grip-on-openais-future-profits-newsoms-strange-ai-veto?rc=kz8jh3&ref=wheresyoured.at), after which point it receives *49% of all profits until it is paid $1.56 trillion dollars,* or 120 times the original amount, though the move to a non-profit structure may remove the limits on OpenAI’s ridiculous “[profit participation units](https://www.wheresyoured.at/subprimeai/#:~:text=profit%20participation%20units)” where previous investors are given a slice of (theoretical) profits from the least profitable company in the world.

Nevertheless, Microsoft’s iron grip on the future profits of this company — as well as complete access to its research and technology — means that anyone investing is effectively agreeing to help Microsoft out, and makes any stock (or PPUs) that Microsoft owns far more valuable.

There’s also the other problem: how OpenAI converts its [bizarre non-profit structure](https://wheresyoured.at/p/sam-altman-freed?ref=wheresyoured.at) into a for-profit, and whether that’s actually possible. Investors are, according to the New York Times, hedging their bets. OpenAI has two years from the deal’s close to convert to a for-profit company, or its [funding will convert into debt at a 9% interest rate](https://www.theinformation.com/articles/how-openai-cfo-sarah-friar-is-keeping-startup-flush-with-cash?utm_campaign=Editorial&utm_content=Article&utm_medium=organic_social&utm_source=twitter&rc=kz8jh3).

> As an aside: how will OpenAI pay that interest in the event they can't convert to a for-profit business? Will they raise money to pay the interest rate? Will they get a loan?

As a result, OpenAI now faces multiple challenges:

1. It must successfully close its current $6.5 billion to $7 billion round within the next month — and the deal has been “almost closing” for a couple of weeks.
2. It must, on closing said deal, convert itself to a for-profit company, within two years.
3. In the event that it wishes to grow, OpenAI will have to close another round of funding by the middle of 2025, and raise both more money (likely $10 billion), and raise it at a higher valuation (likely at minimum $175 billion, if not $200 billion to $250 billion.)

Also, at some point, OpenAI will have to work out a way to go public, because otherwise there is absolutely no reason to invest in this company, unless you are doing so with the belief that you will be able to offload your shares in a future secondary sale. At that point, OpenAI resembles a kind of investment scam where new investors exist only to help old investors liquidate their assets rather than anyone investing in the actual value of the company itself.

And, after that, OpenAI will still need to raise more rounds of funding. ChatGPT’s free version is a poison in its system, a marketing channel that burns billions of dollars to introduce people to a product that only ten million people will actually pay for, and its future depends largely on its ability to continue convincing people to use it. And in a few months, OpenAI’s integration with Apple devices launches, [meaning that millions of people will now start using ChatGPT for free on their iPhones](https://www.wheresyoured.at/untitled/), with OpenAI footing the bill in the hopes they’ll upgrade to ChatGPT Plus, at which point Apple will take $6 of the $20 a month subscription.

How does this continue? How does OpenAI survive?

### **What Are We Doing Here?**

I realize I’ve been a little repetitive in this piece, but it’s really important to focus on the fact that the leader in the generative AI space does not appear to make that much money (less than 30% of its revenue) helping people put generative AI in their products, and makes most of their money selling subscriptions to a product that mostly coasts on hype.

While it may *seem* impressive that OpenAI has 10 million paying subscribers, that’s the result of literally every AI story mentioning its name in almost every media outlet, and its name being on the lips of basically everybody in the entirety of the tech industry — and a chunk of the business world at large.

Worse still, arguably the most important product that OpenAI sells is access to its models, and it’s the least-viable part of its business, despite “GPT” being synonymous with the concept of integrating generative AI into your company.

Because access to its APIs isn’t a particularly big business, OpenAI’s hopes of hitting its revenue goals is almost entirely contingent on ChatGPT Plus continuing to grow. While this might happen in the short term ([though research suggests that 11% of customers stop paying after a month and 26% after three months](https://www.earnestanalytics.com/insights/all-posts/chatgpt-and-anthropic-top-paid-ai-tools-by-retention?ref=wheresyoured.at)), ChatGPT Plus has no real moat, little product differentiation ([outside of its advanced voice mode, which Meta is already working on a competitor to](https://xcancel.com/Ahmad_Al_Dahle/status/1840097836312211681?ref=wheresyoured.at#m)), and increasing commoditization from other models, open source platforms, and even on-device models (like on Copilot+-powered PCs).

The features that ChatGPT is best known for — generating code, summarizing meetings, brainstorming and generating stuff — can be done on any number of other platforms, in many cases for free, and OpenAI’s biggest competitor to ChatGPT Plus is ChatGPT itself.

And I cannot express enough how bad a sign it is that its cloud business is so thin. The largest player in the supposedly most important industry ever can only scrounge together $1 billion in annual revenue selling access to the most well-known model in the industry.

This suggests a fundamental weakness in the revenue model behind GPT, as well as a fundamental weakness in the generative artificial intelligence market writ large. If OpenAI cannot make more than a billion dollars of revenue off of this, then it’s fair to assume that there is either a lack of interest from developers or a lack of interest from the consumers those developers are serving.

Remember when I said that OpenAI mentioned in its recent Devay that it had “[cut costs for developers to access [their] API by 99% in the last two years](https://techcrunch.com/2024/10/01/openais-devday-brings-realtime-api-and-other-treats-for-ai-app-developers/?ref=wheresyoured.at#:~:text=One%20of%20OpenAI%E2%80%99s%20new%20features,%20dubbed%20the%20Realtime%20API,%20will)” (which Max Zeff of TechCrunch posits may be due to price pressure from Google and Meta)? That suggests that OpenAI really has no room to start charging *more* for access to its APIs. This technology is commoditized, with few points of differentiation. It can’t, for example, raise prices for the sake of a better, more capable product. OpenAI is trapped.

All of this is happening at a time when an astronomical amount of talent is leaving the company — the talent that OpenAI desperately needs to build products that people will actually pay for.

At this point, it’s hard to see how OpenAI survives.

To continue growing ChatGPT Plus, it will have to create meaningful, mass-market use cases, or hope it can coast on a relatively-specious hype wave, one that will have to be so powerful it effectively triples its users. Even then, OpenAI will have to both find ways to give developers more reasons to integrate its models while making sure that said models provide a service that the end-user will actually appreciate, which is heavily-reliant on both the underlying technology *and* the ability of developers to create meaningful products with it.

And OpenAI is getting desperate. [According to Fortune](https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mira-murati-surprise-exit-openai-173041667.html?ref=wheresyoured.at), OpenAI’s culture is deeply brittle, with a “relentless pressure to introduce products” rushing its o1 model to market as Sam Altman was “eager to prove to potential investors in the company’s latest funding round that OpenAI remains at the forefront of AI development” despite staff saying it wasn’t ready.

These aren’t the actions of a company that’s on the forefront of anything — they’re desperate moves made by desperate people burning the candle at both ends.

Yet, once you get past these problems, you run head-first into the largest one: that generative AI is deeply unprofitable to run. When every subscriber or API call loses you money, growth only exists to help flog your company to investors, and at some point investors will begin to question whether this company can stand on its own two feet.

It can’t.

OpenAI is a disaster in the making, and behind it sits a potentially bigger, nastier disaster — a lack of any real strength in the generative AI market. If OpenAI can only make a billion dollars as the leader in this market (with $200 million of that coming from Microsoft reselling its models), it heavily suggests that there is neither developer nor user interest in generative AI products.

Perhaps it’s the hallucination problem, or perhaps it’s just that generative AI isn’t something that produces particularly-interesting interactions with a user. While you could argue that “somebody can work out a really cool product,” it’s time to ask why Amazon, Google, Meta, OpenAI, Apple, and Microsoft have failed to make one in the last two years.

Though ChatGPT Plus is popular, it’s clear that it operates — much like ChatGPT — as a way of seeing what generative AI can do rather than a product that customers love. I see no viable way for OpenAI to grow this product at the rate it needs to be grown, and that’s before considering its total lack of profit.

I hypothesize that OpenAI will successfully close its $150 billion round in the next few weeks, but that growth is already slowing, and will slow dramatically as we enter the new year. I believe the upcoming earnings from Microsoft and Google will further dampen excitement around generative AI, which in turn will reduce the likelihood that developers will integrate GPT further into their products, while also likely depressing market interest in ChatGPT writ large.

While this bubble can continue coasting for a while, nothing about the OpenAI story looks good. This is a company lost, bleeding money with every interaction with the customer, flogging software that’s at best kind-of useful and at worst actively harmful. Unless something significantly changes — like a breakthrough in energy or compute efficiency — I can’t see how this company makes it another two years.

Worse still, If my hypothesis about the wider generative AI market is true, then there might simply not be a viable business in providing these services. While [Meta](https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/25/mark-zuckerberg-says-meta-ai-has-nearly-500-million-users/?ref=wheresyoured.at) and OpenAI might be able to claim hundreds of millions of people *use* these services, I see no evidence that these are products that millions of people will pay for long-term.

For me to be wrong, these companies will have to solve multiple intractable problems, come up with entirely-new use cases, and raise historic amounts of capital.

If I’m right, we’re watching venture capitalists and [companies like Microsoft burn tens of billions of dollars](https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/01/microsoft-ai-bet-shows-up-in-finance-leases-that-havent-yet-commenced.html?ref=wheresyoured.at) to power the next generation of products that nobody gives a shit about.

###

altman.csv

Date,Tweet
2024-12-30,"common themes:

AGI
agents
much better 4o upgrade
much better memory
longer context
“grown up mode”
deep research feature
better sora
more personalization

(interestingly, many great updates we have coming were mentioned not at all or very little!)"
2024-12-25,what would you like openai to build/fix in 2025?
2024-12-27,algorithmic feeds are the first at-scale misaligned AIs
2024-12-27,and i'm very in favor of people trying aggressive experiments to improve them
2024-12-27,"it is hard to overstate how much alec radford has contributed to the field, and how much of everyone's current progress traces back to his work.

i believe he is a genius at the level of einstein, and also he is one of my favorite people ever--hard to imagine a nicer, warmer, or more thoughtful person.

he is extremely modest and isn't as well-known as he should be, though i'm certain he doesn't care.

super grateful for everything he has done for openai, and so looking forward to collaborating with him as an independent researcher--i think it will fit his style really well."
2024-12-27,"it is (relatively) easy to copy something that you know works.

it is extremely hard to do something new, risky, and difficult when you don't know if it will work.

individual researchers rightly get a lot of glory for that when they do it! it's the coolest thing in the world."
2024-12-27,"it's also extremely hard to rally a big talented research team to charge a new hill in the fog together.

this is key to driving progress forward.

thanks to ilya, jakub, bob, mark, and many other exceptional research leaders who got us here."
2024-12-27,"i especially want to thanks @MillionInt who relentlessly leads the strawberry team--getting to this point was one of the best displays of leadership in openai history, with much more to come."
2024-12-26,"RT @OpenAI: Most of ChatGPT, the API, and Sora have been down for a couple of hours and we're sorry for the trouble this is causing.

We’ve identified the issue and have started recovery. We hope to be back asap. https://t.co/YiG0F9YxNN"
2024-12-26,"Most of ChatGPT, the API, and Sora have been down for a couple of hours and we're sorry for the trouble this is causing.

We’ve identified the issue and have started recovery. We hope to be back asap. https://t.co/YiG0F9YxNN"
2024-12-22,"i think the wsj is the overall best us newspaper right now, but they published an article called ""The Next Great Leap in AI Is Behind Schedule and Crazy Expensive"" many hours after we announced o3?! 

https://t.co/JkA83TNTfO"
2024-12-21,"RT @rhythmrg: also: the model we used for all of our o3 evals is fully general; a subset of the arc-agi public training set was a tiny fraction of the broader o3 train distribution, and we didn’t do any additional domain-specific fine-tuning on the final checkpoint"
2024-12-21,"also: the model we used for all of our o3 evals is fully general; a subset of the arc-agi public training set was a tiny fraction of the broader o3 train distribution, and we didn’t do any additional domain-specific fine-tuning on the final checkpoint"
2024-12-21,to anyone wondering if the high ARC-AGI score is due to how we prompt the model: nah. I wrote down a prompt format that I thought looked clean and then we used it...that's the full story
2024-12-21,you can just do things
2024-12-21,"day 13 of shipmas: special sora bonus🎄✨

our GPUs get a little less busy during late december as people take a break from work, so we are giving all plus users unlimited sora access via the relaxed queue over the holidays!

enjoy creating!"
2024-12-21,the featured feed is soooo good now
2024-12-21,you all did incredible work here!
2024-12-20,"o3-mini is here! Together with @shengjia_zhao, @_kevinlu, @max_a_schwarzer, @ericmitchellai, @brian_zq, @sandersted and many others, we trained this efficient reasoning model, maximally compressing the intelligence from big brothers o1 / o3. The model is very good in hard math/coding/science questions with a fraction of cost and latency, defining new cost-efficient reasoning frontier. 

The model supports three different reasoning powers. Users can adjust the thinking time based on different use cases. The longer the model thinks, the better its capability is.

With o3-mini-low, we drastically reduce latency compared to o1-mini, achieving GPT-4o level latency for response.

You can apply early access to this model today to do safety-testing! 
https://t.co/PdWsBPEipr"
2024-12-21,RT @__nmca__: o3 represents enormous progress in general-domain reasoning with RL — excited that we were able to announce some results today! Here’s a summary of what we shared about o3 in the livestream (1/n) https://t.co/xq7RXZtleJ
2024-12-20,o3 represents enormous progress in general-domain reasoning with RL — excited that we were able to announce some results today! Here’s a summary of what we shared about o3 in the livestream (1/n) https://t.co/xq7RXZtleJ
2024-12-21,RT @mckbrando: to anyone wondering if the high ARC-AGI score is due to how we prompt the model: nah. I wrote down a prompt format that I thought looked clean and then we used it...that's the full story
2024-12-20,"We verified the o3 results for OpenAI on @arcprize 

My first thought when I saw the prompt they used to claim their score was...

""That's it?""

It was refreshing (impressive) to see the prompt be so simple

""Find the common rule that maps an input grid to an output grid"" https://t.co/awXk85tE2s"
2024-12-21,"seemingly somewhat lost in the noise of today:

on many coding tasks, o3-mini will outperform o1 at a massive cost reduction!

i expect this trend to continue, but also that the ability to get marginally more performance for exponentially more money will be really strange."
2024-12-20,"very, very grateful to work on such an incredible team. one of the greatest joys in life."
2024-12-20,this is great work!
2024-12-20,"Proud to share our work on Deliberative Alignment
https://t.co/QN8lLVSvr6
with a special shoutout to @MelodyGuan who led this work.

Deliberative Alignment trains models to reason over relevant safety and alignment policies to forge their responses."
2024-12-20,"if you are a safety researcher, please consider applying to help test o3-mini and o3. excited to get these out for general availability soon.

extremely proud of all of openai for the work and ingenuity that went into creating these models; they are great."
2024-12-20,"(and most of all, excited to see what people will build with this!)"
2024-12-20,"ho ho ho 🎅

see you tomorrow"
2024-12-20,"fine one clue

should have said oh oh oh"
2024-12-19,wow people really love 1-800-CHATGPT lol
2024-12-17,"new stuff for developers today, including o1 in the API with new features like structured outputs and function calling, realtime API updates, preference fine-tuning, and more."
2024-12-17,https://t.co/jQYW17G737
2024-12-17,"RT @OpenAI: 🌐ChatGPT search 🌐is starting to roll out to all Free users today.

Search the web in a faster, better way—available globally on https://t.co/nYW5KO1aIg and our mobile and desktop apps for all logged-in users. https://t.co/yf6GJGAm8b"
2024-12-16,"🌐ChatGPT search 🌐is starting to roll out to all Free users today.

Search the web in a faster, better way—available globally on https://t.co/nYW5KO1aIg and our mobile and desktop apps for all logged-in users. https://t.co/yf6GJGAm8b"
2024-12-13,"we are ready for you! https://t.co/VZBcJFqChS

(and check out how good the featured feed is getting)"
2024-12-13,https://t.co/lJVbCnbXQW signups are fully open
2024-12-13,big convenience uplevel!
2024-12-13,"Day 7: Projects in ChatGPT—a new way to organize and customize your chats.

https://t.co/Dt7wzatS6l"
2024-12-12,"this is the thing that has felt most like a futuristic UX to me recently.

(i think it's because voice is an additional io channel while you're doing other stuff on your phone, but it's hard to precisely identify.)"
2024-12-12,@sama The screensharing on iOS is an extremely delightful experience!
2024-12-12,"video input now rolling out for chatgpt voice mode including screenshare!

(and santa mode for a little holiday treat)"
2024-12-12,we back
2024-12-12,i was about to offer to start being the mechanical turk for chatgpt
2024-12-11,"very often i still hear PG in my head saying

""you know what you should do..."" with a finger wag"
2024-12-11,"OpenAI is growing as fast as a promising new startup, but they're already huge. I can't remember ever having seen this before."
2024-12-11,chatgpt now one button away!
2024-12-11,"Day 5: ChatGPT x Apple Intelligence

https://t.co/I4l1icbi9n"
2024-12-10,!
2024-12-10,Bullish on America 🚀 https://t.co/elPlIomDsG
2024-12-10,"canvas is now available to all chatgpt users, and can execute code!

more importantly it can also still emojify your writing."
2024-12-10,"a few months ago robinhood sent me a gold credit card with extremely high-quality details. 

i thought it was a ridiculous marketing stunt at the time but now it’s an example i give when talking about great design. https://t.co/v0VWyJK7PT"
2024-12-10,"we significantly underestimated demand for sora; it is going to take awhile to get everyone access.

trying to figure out how to do it as fast as possible!"
2024-12-09,big congrats!!
2024-12-09,"Introducing Willow, our new state-of-the-art quantum computing chip with a breakthrough that can reduce errors exponentially as we scale up using more qubits, cracking a 30-year challenge in the field. In benchmark tests, Willow solved a standard computation in <5 mins that would take a leading supercomputer over 10^25 years, far beyond the age of the universe(!)."
2024-12-09,"demand higher than expected; signups will be disabled on and off and generations will be slow for awhile.

doing our best!"
2024-12-09,Very excited to bring this to the world. You may notice signups disabled as we scale this up but hope to be fully live soon!!
2024-12-09,amazing work bill!
2024-12-09,"Today's the day!

https://t.co/SufaUbO1ZF

Included with ChatGPT Plus/Pro! https://t.co/DmRUJDqYOW"
2024-12-09,"aditya (@model_mechanic) is a legend and visionary in the field, and runs a very special team.

https://t.co/sBn2oF9a0o"
2024-12-09,"we are launching sora today, and we made a new product to go with it.

if you have an openai plus or pro account, you can generate videos. anyone can view them.

it will take some time to roll out, but by the end of the day it should be available at https://t.co/VZBcJFqChS"
2024-12-09,excited to see what you make :)
2024-12-09,"details:

with an openai plus account, you get 50 generations per month.

with a pro account, you get 500 fast generations (or fewer at high resolution) and unlimited in a slower generation mode.

available in many countries, but not most of europe and the UK for now."
2024-12-09,"launching a new product on our livestream today in 5 minutes:

https://t.co/ABHFV8NiKc"
2024-12-07,"i am so, so excited for what we have to launch on day 3. 

monday feels so far away."
2024-12-07,"fun watching the vibes shift so quickly on o1 :)

glad you like it!"
2024-12-06,"today we are announcing reinforcement finetuning, which makes it really easy to create expert models in specific domains with very little training data.

livestream going now: https://t.co/ABHFV8NiKc

alpha program starting now, launching publicly in q1"
2024-12-06,"this works amazingly well; it has been one of my biggest surprises of 2024.

excited to see what people build!"
2024-12-06,congrats to czar @DavidSacks!
2024-12-06,"almost everyone will be best-served by our free tier or the $20/month plus tier.

a small percentage of users want to use chatgpt a TON and hit rate limits, and want to pay more for more intelligence on really hard problems. the $200/month tier is good for them!"
2024-12-06,"$200/month, damn... . Maybe a student discount... , @sama?"
2024-12-05,"RT @OpenAI: OpenAI o1 is now fully rolled out to 100% of ChatGPT Plus, Team, and Pro users 💯"
2024-12-05,"OpenAI o1 is now fully rolled out to 100% of ChatGPT Plus, Team, and Pro users 💯"
2024-12-05,o1 is powerful but it's not so powerful that the universe needs to send us a tsunami
2024-12-05,"for extra clarity:

o1 is available in our plus tier, for $20/month.

with the new pro tier ($200/month), it can think even harder for the hardest problems.

most users will be very happy with o1 in the plus tier!"
2024-12-05,"we just launched two things:

o1, the smartest model in the world. smarter, faster, and more features (eg multimodality) than o1-preview. live in chatgpt now, coming to api soon. 

chatgpt pro. $200/month. unlimited usage and even-smarter mode for using o1. more benefits to come!"
2024-12-04,"🎄🎅starting tomorrow at 10 am pacific, we are doing 12 days of openai. 

each weekday, we will have a livestream with a launch or demo, some big ones and some stocking stuffers. 

we’ve got some great stuff to share, hope you enjoy! merry christmas."
2024-12-01,we made a treehouse! https://t.co/igA26ThWPZ
2024-12-01,not pictured: both altman brothers backseat driving and providing almost no help
2024-12-01,"but very satisfying to build something physical and better than just eating/drinking all thanksgiving, 10/10 would recommend"
2024-11-21,RT @sama: good new model out!
2024-11-20,good new model out!
2024-11-20,"GPT-4o got an update 🎉

The model’s creative writing ability has leveled up–more natural, engaging, and tailored writing to improve relevance &amp; readability.

It’s also better at working with uploaded files, providing deeper insights &amp; more thorough responses."
2024-11-15,which one is supposed to be the left-wing propaganda machine again? https://t.co/1rt6G9Q3NL
2024-11-15,"we are proud of how consistently chatgpt scores as the least biased ai in evals.

that is an important default (and then users should have lots of choice to customize)."
2024-11-14,there is no wall
2024-11-13,RT @gdb: longest vacation of my life complete. back to building @OpenAI.
2024-11-12,longest vacation of my life complete. back to building @OpenAI.
2024-11-12,"lol if i could go back in time two years i would slightly amend this.

you can definitely just do stuff, but then sometimes it takes over your life."
2022-11-10,"you can just...do stuff

it isn't more complicated"
2024-11-11,"proud to be american always, and especially grateful today.

thank you for your service! 🇺🇸"
2024-11-11,"amazing progress at world (fka worldcoin) over the past year, super proud of the team and especially @alexblania's leadership! rare combo of vision and execution ability."
2024-11-11,"@alexblania more generally, i am feeling good about a bright future for cryptocurrency!"
2024-11-09,"chatgpt went down for 30 mins today :( we are much, much better at reliability than we used to be, but clearly more work in front of us.

(it is now the 8th biggest website in the world according to similarweb--we have had a lot of work to do these past two years!)"
2024-11-09,sorry for the inconvenience and we will get back to work 🫡
2024-11-06,https://t.co/n494J9IuEN
2024-11-06,"congrats to President Trump.

i wish for his huge success in the job."
2024-11-06,it is critically important that the US maintains its lead in developing AI with democratic values.
2024-11-04,that first night that gets dark at 5 oclock always hits different :(
2024-11-02,i heard o2 gets 105% on GPQA
2024-11-02,"damn, wrong account"
2024-11-02,"(i do really appreciate that i can make myself laugh so hard, its a nice way to go through life)"
2024-11-02,i heard o2 gets 105% on GPQA
2024-11-02,"damn, wrong account"
2024-11-02,"chatgpt growth is wild recently

very proud of the team!"
2024-11-01,googolplexian
2024-11-01,"searching for a chrome extension is not easy, so here is the link:

https://t.co/7tYkmMgfjr"
2024-11-01,"hey i'm really sorry to keep hyping our own product but you really should get chatgpt plus and install the chrome extension for search

i am cheerfully the first to admit when we ship something that isn't very good, but this time it's...really good"
2024-10-31,"if early reviews from friends are a reliable metric, search is going to do super well!"
2024-10-31,"doing an AMA on reddit w/some of the team!

https://t.co/IuM1h62wH6"
2024-10-31,"search is my favorite feature we have launched in chatgpt since the original the launch!

it has probably doubled my usage over the past few weeks."
2024-10-31,"🌐 Introducing ChatGPT search 🌐

ChatGPT can now search the web in a much better way than before so you get fast, timely answers with links to relevant web sources.

https://t.co/7yilNgqH9T https://t.co/z8mJWS8J9c"
2024-10-31,hard to go back to doing it the old way haha
2024-10-30,"RT @OpenAI: Factuality is one of the biggest open problems in the deployment of artificial intelligence.

We are open-sourcing a new benchmark called SimpleQA that measures the factuality of language models. https://t.co/pYWcyl6ASV"
2024-10-30,"Factuality is one of the biggest open problems in the deployment of artificial intelligence.

We are open-sourcing a new benchmark called SimpleQA that measures the factuality of language models. https://t.co/pYWcyl6ASV"
2024-10-27,"the best way to get good at something is usually to just practice actually doing the thing in question.

a lot of very capable people outsmart themselves with complex plans that involve working a lot on fake prerequisites."
2024-10-22,"it’s not that the future is going to happen so fast, it’s that the past happened so slow."
2024-10-21,whoa ChatGPT's 2nd birthday is next month!
2024-10-21,what should we give it for a birthday present...
2024-10-16,"i am so excited about this; dane is an example of one of those people you meet and 10 minutes in realize you are talking to a genuine expert and great leader.

welcome to the team, dane!"
2024-10-15,"I'm thrilled to announce that I've joined as CISO, alongside @embeddedsec, at @OpenAI.

Security is germane to OpenAI's mission. It is critical we meet the highest standards for compliance, trust, and security to protect hundreds of millions of users of our products, enable democratic institutions to maximally benefit from these technologies, and drive the development of safe AGI for the world. 

I am so excited for this next chapter, and can't wait to help secure a future where AI benefits us all."
2024-10-13,"speaking of chatgpt, was trying to figure out the perfect walled garden i someday wanted to build.

the ""edit this area"" of the image gen tool is so helpful for brainstorming ideas quickly.

after 10 minutes of playing around, i ❤️ https://t.co/lPugDAIhdb"
2024-10-13,love this:
2024-10-12,"Pretty cool.

Ask ChatGPT “From all of our interactions what is one thing that you can tell me about myself that I may not know about myself”"
2024-10-04,"is ""add emojis"" in canvas the best feature openai has ever shipped?"
2024-10-03,now live to 100% of chatgpt plus subscribers!
2024-10-03,"check out canvas in chatgpt:

https://t.co/aswD9SwW04"
2024-10-03,"RT @karinanguyen_: My vision for the ultimate AGI interface is a blank canvas. The one that evolves, self-morphs over time with human preferences and invents novel ways of interacting with humans, redefining our relationship with AI technology and the entire Internet.

But here are some of the coolest demos with current canvas

1/ Do research in canvas! GPT4o with canvas can do research about art history, write a report, you can ask to verify its claims and then add citations and bibliography:"
2024-10-03,"My vision for the ultimate AGI interface is a blank canvas. The one that evolves, self-morphs over time with human preferences and invents novel ways of interacting with humans, redefining our relationship with AI technology and the entire Internet.

But here are some of the coolest demos with current canvas

1/ Do research in canvas! GPT4o with canvas can do research about art history, write a report, you can ask to verify its claims and then add citations and bibliography:"
2024-10-03,"check out canvas in chatgpt:

https://t.co/aswD9SwW04"
2024-10-01,"realtime api (speech-to-speech): https://t.co/cfUkb9hTsq

vision in the fine-tuning api: https://t.co/fDFazE7xvZ

prompt caching (50% discounts and faster processing for recently-seen input tokens):
https://t.co/97mz86YVKR

model distillation (!!):
https://t.co/4wH1bmP7rb"
2024-10-01,"shipping a few new tools for developers today!

from last devday to this one:

*98% decrease in cost per token from GPT-4 to 4o mini
*50x increase in token volume across our systems
*excellent model intelligence progress
*(and a little bit of drama along the way)"
2024-10-01,"excited to make even more progress from this devday to the next one.

the path to agi has never felt more clear."
2024-09-26,"i just posted this note to openai:

Hi All–

Mira has been instrumental to OpenAI’s progress and growth the last 6.5 years; she has been a hugely significant factor in our development from an unknown research lab to an important company.

When Mira informed me this morning that she was leaving, I was saddened but of course support her decision. For the past year, she has been building out a strong bench of leaders that will continue our progress.

I also want to share that Bob and Barret have decided to depart OpenAI. Mira, Bob, and Barret made these decisions independently of each other and amicably, but the timing of Mira’s decision was such that it made sense to now do this all at once, so that we can work together for a smooth handover to the next generation of leadership.

I am extremely grateful to all of them for their contributions.

Being a leader at OpenAI is all-consuming. On one hand it’s a privilege to build AGI and be the fastest-growing company that gets to put our advanced research in the hands of hundreds of millions of people. On the other hand it’s relentless to lead a team through it—and they have gone above and beyond the call of duty for the company.

Mark is going to be our new SVP of Research and will now lead the research org in partnership with Jakub as Chief Scientist. This has been our long-term succession plan for Bob someday; although it’s happening sooner than we thought, I couldn’t be more excited that Mark is stepping into the role. Mark obviously has deep technical expertise, but he has also learned how to be a leader and manager in a very impressive way over the past few years.

Josh Achiam is going to take on a new role as Head of Mission Alignment, working across the company to ensure that we get all pieces (and culture) right to be in a place to succeed at the mission.

Kevin and Srinivas will continue to lead the Applied team.

Matt Knight will be our Chief Information Security Officer having already served in this capacity for a long time. This has been our plan for quite some time.

Mark, Jakub, Kevin, Srinivas, Matt, and Josh will report to me. I have over the past year or so spent most of my time on the non-technical parts of our organization; I am now looking forward to spending most of my time on the technical and product parts of the company.

...

Leadership changes are a natural part of companies, especially companies that grow so quickly and are so demanding. I obviously won’t pretend it’s natural for this one to be so abrupt, but we are not a normal company, and I think the reasons Mira explained to me (there is never a good time, anything not abrupt would have leaked, and she wanted to do this while OpenAI was in an upswing) make sense. We can both talk about this more tomorrow during all-hands.

Thank you for all of your hard work and dedication.

Sam"
2024-09-25,"rollout completed early, amazing work by the team!

(except for jurisdictions that require additional external review)"
2024-09-24,"advanced voice mode rollout starts today! (will be completed over the course of the week)

hope you think it was worth the wait 🥺🫶"
2024-09-24,"Advanced Voice is rolling out to all Plus and Team users in the ChatGPT app over the course of the week.

While you’ve been patiently waiting, we’ve added Custom Instructions, Memory, five new voices, and improved accents.

It can also say “Sorry I’m late” in over 50 languages. https://t.co/APOqqhXtDg"
2024-09-23,The Intelligence Age: https://t.co/vuaBNwp2bD
2024-09-17,"incredible outperformance on goal 3, even though it took awhile:

https://t.co/5GpYOlN8HB"
2024-09-17,we heard you; more o1!
2024-09-09,"if you strap a rocket to a dumpster, the dumpster can still get to orbit, and the trash fire will go out as it leaves the atmosphere.

many important insights contained in that observation.

but also it's better to launch nice satellites instead."
2024-09-08,"OpenAI works miracles, but we do also wrap a lot of things in bash while loops to work around periodic crashes."
2024-09-14,"(this was about watching the strawberry-IOI team sprint to get ready for the competition, which was amazing to watch but slightly chaotic.

said with overwhelming love!)"
2024-09-14,"really fun going to my old high school in st louis to talk to students about o1!

was happy to hear that some of them had already hit the rate limits :) https://t.co/yz3Tq7GrDW"
2024-09-14,"i love being home in the midwest.

the night sky is so beautiful.

excited for the winter constellations to rise soon; they are so great."
2024-09-12,rollout complete; live to 100% of chatgpt plus/team users now
2024-09-12,you guys did incredible work; the performance to cost ratio is so good!
2024-09-12,"Excited to bring o1-mini to the world with @ren_hongyu @_kevinlu @Eric_Wallace_ and many others. A cheap model that can achieve 70% AIME and 1650 elo on codeforces.

https://t.co/z0rrjWVniH"
2024-09-12,"RT @michpokrass: o1-preview and o1-mini are here. they're by far our best models at reasoning, and we believe they will unlock wholly new use cases in the api.

if you had a product idea that was just a little too early, and the models were just not quite smart enough -- try again."
2024-09-12,"o1-preview and o1-mini are here. they're by far our best models at reasoning, and we believe they will unlock wholly new use cases in the api.

if you had a product idea that was just a little too early, and the models were just not quite smart enough -- try again."
2024-09-12,"here is o1, a series of our most capable and aligned models yet:

https://t.co/yzZGNN8HvD

o1 is still flawed, still limited, and it still seems more impressive on first use than it does after you spend more time with it. https://t.co/Qs1HoSDOz1"
2024-09-12,"screenshot of eval results in the tweet above and more in the blog post, but worth especially noting:

a fine-tuned version of o1 scored at the 49th percentile in the IOI under competition conditions! and got gold with 10k submissions per problem."
2024-09-12,"extremely proud of the team; this was a monumental effort across the entire company.

hope you enjoy it!"
2024-09-17,"We appreciate your excitement for OpenAI o1 and we want you to be able to use it more.

We have increased rate limits for o1-mini by 7x, from 50 messages per week to 50 messages per day.

o1-preview is more expensive to serve, so we’ve increased the rate limit from 30 messages per week to 50 messages per week."
2024-09-12,"here is o1, a series of our most capable and aligned models yet:

https://t.co/yzZGNN8HvD

o1 is still flawed, still limited, and it still seems more impressive on first use than it does after you spend more time with it. https://t.co/Qs1HoSDOz1"
2024-09-12,"but also, it is the beginning of a new paradigm: AI that can do general-purpose complex reasoning.

o1-preview and o1-mini are available today (ramping over some number of hours) in ChatGPT for plus and team users and our API for tier 5 users."
2024-09-12,"screenshot of eval results in the tweet above and more in the blog post, but worth especially noting:

a fine-tuned version of o1 scored at the 49th percentile in the IOI under competition conditions! and got gold with 10k submissions per problem."
2024-09-12,"no more patience, jimmy"
2024-09-09,"if you strap a rocket to a dumpster, the dumpster can still get to orbit, and the trash fire will go out as it leaves the atmosphere.

many important insights contained in that observation.

but also it's better to launch nice satellites instead."
2024-09-08,"OpenAI works miracles, but we do also wrap a lot of things in bash while loops to work around periodic crashes."
2024-08-29,"we are happy to have reached an agreement with the US AI Safety Institute for pre-release testing of our future models.

for many reasons, we think it's important that this happens at the national level. US needs to continue to lead!"
2024-08-08,i have been fortunate to work with many great investors; there is no one i'd recommend more highly than josh.
2024-08-05,"We are humbled to announce the close of Thrive IX. Exceeding $5 billion, Thrive IX comprises $1 billion designated for early-stage investments and $4 billion designated for growth-stage investments. 

At Thrive we aim to be concentrated in both people and ideas. The ways in which we approach our work are inspired by how our founders approach theirs. We only make a few investments a year, but our intensity and drive to show up for founders forges a bond that transcends good times and bad. 

We take a longer view than many — based on a belief that category-defining companies tend to create structural compounding advantages over long arcs. This long-term orientation is crucial to our strategy, as we aim to invest in and support companies that have the potential for sustained growth and transformation over many decades. These are guiding principles for Thrive IX.

The technological breakthroughs that will occur over the next years will be unlike anything we have ever experienced before;  And we view Thrive as an enabling technology for the future that we want to see. Business is an expression of the people running it. As we look to Thrive IX, I am filled with optimism, excitement, and purpose. 

I am deeply appreciative for the founders we are fortunate enough to work with, and our limited partners for walking this path with us. Their unwavering support and belief in Thrive underlies everything we achieve together.

https://t.co/xXycdI6yqA"
2024-08-07,i love summer in the garden https://t.co/Ter5Z5nFMc
2024-08-06,"by very popular demand, structured outputs in the API:

https://t.co/AbfzTp4LMF"
2024-08-01,"a few quick updates about safety at openai:

as we said last july, we’re committed to allocating at least 20% of the computing resources to safety efforts across the entire company.

our team has been working with the US AI Safety Institute on an agreement where we would provide early access to our next foundation model so that we can work together to push forward the science of AI evaluations. excited for this!

finally, we want current and former employees to be able to raise concerns and feel comfortable doing so. this is crucial for any company, but for us especially and an important part of our safety plan. in may, we voided non-disparagement terms for current and former employees and provisions that gave openai the right (although it was never used) to cancel vested equity. we’ve worked hard to make it right."
2024-08-01,"this is a cool one!

we will improve the feature quickly."
2024-07-31,"ChatGPT Advanced Voice Mode counting as fast as it can to 10, then to 50 (this blew my mind - it stopped to catch its breath like a human would) https://t.co/oZMCPO5RPh"
2024-07-26,"PG is one of the best all-around people i've ever met. to anyone who knows him well, this is a preposterous episode of ""this week in twitter drama"".

there are many actual anti-semites in the world; it is important we keep the power in the word and not let it get diluted.

PG is very much not an anti-semite and it's crazy to me that he's getting smeared for it; expressing opinions on the war in gaza and hating jewish people are the not the same thing."
2024-07-26,let discoveries become tactics and tactics become strategy
2024-07-25,RT @ianzelbo: This is cool but the name sounds like something a high schooler would put on their resume as their first solo project
2024-07-25,This is cool but the name sounds like something a high schooler would put on their resume as their first solo project
2024-07-25,"we think there is room to make search much better than it is today.

we are launching a new prototype called SearchGPT: https://t.co/A28Y03X1So

we will learn from the prototype, make it better, and then integrate the tech into ChatGPT to make it real-time and maximally helpful."
2024-07-25,"i have been pleasantly surprised by how much i prefer this to old-school search, and how quickly i adapted.

join the waitlist here: https://t.co/sz5MNcEp1H

please let us know what you think!"
2024-07-25,"AI progress will be immense from here, and AI will be a critical national security issue.

i wrote an op-ed for the washington post about why the U.S. need to maintain its lead in developing in AI, rather than leave a vacuum for authoritarian governments.

https://t.co/lW7Za5aF8d"
2024-07-25,"this is not a republican or democratic issue; it's an american issue. no matter who the next U.S. president is, they will make some very big decisions about shaping the future of U.S. AI leadership."
2024-07-25,"the most powerful AI controlled by countries or groups that want to use it to cement their hold on power rather than to improve the lives of their citizens is a scary thing.

a U.S.-led coalition of nations is the best way to prevent that. https://t.co/IzSpG9kzAq"
2024-07-25,"AI progress will be immense from here, and AI will be a critical national security issue.

i wrote an op-ed for the washington post about why the U.S. need to maintain its lead in developing in AI, rather than leave a vacuum for authoritarian governments.

https://t.co/lW7Za5aF8d"
2024-07-25,"i feel strongly that a U.S.-led global coalition can best ensure that AI stays democratic, and that it benefits as many people as possible."
2024-07-25,"this is not a republican or democratic issue; it's an american issue. no matter who the next U.S. president is, they will make some very big decisions about shaping the future of U.S. AI leadership."
2024-07-23,"and also, GPT-4o mini fine-tuning now live!"
2024-07-23,"Customize GPT-4o mini for your application with fine-tuning. Available today to tier 4 and 5 users, we plan to gradually expand access to all tiers. First 2M training tokens a day are free, through Sept 23.

https://t.co/uHeVKFgRlr https://t.co/ZAzBF6fL5Z"
2024-07-23,"we try not to get too excited about any one eval, but excited to see GPT-4o mini so close to GPT-4o performance on lmsys at 1/20th the price!"
2024-07-23,"Exciting Chatbot Arena Update -- GPT-4o mini's result is out!

With 4K+ user votes, GPT-4o mini climbs to the top of the leaderboard, now joint #1 with GPT-4o while being 20x cheaper! Significantly better than its early version (""upcoming-gpt-mini"") in Arena across the boards.

Great news for developers and congrats @OpenAI on this incredible milestone! Cost of intelligence continues to drop to unlock new applications! 

More category breakdown below👇"
2024-07-22,"GPT-4o mini launched 4 days ago.

already processing more than 200B tokens per day!

very happy to hear how much people are liking the new model."
2024-07-22,"the openresearch team releases the first result from their UBI study:

https://t.co/8YXBwVeQeW

great, diligent work over the past few years. proud of the team!"
2024-07-22,"and some participant stories:

https://t.co/GShSajStsv"
2024-07-18,"towards intelligence too cheap to meter:

https://t.co/76GEqATfws

15 cents per million input tokens, 60 cents per million output tokens, MMLU of 82%, and fast.

most importantly, we think people will really, really like using the new model."
2024-07-18,"way back in 2022, the best model in the world was text-davinci-003.

it was much, much worse than this new model.

it cost 100x more."
2024-07-17,"RT @OpenAI: We trained advanced language models to generate text that weaker models can easily verify, and found it also made these texts easier for human evaluation.

This research could help AI systems be more verifiable and trustworthy in the real world. https://t.co/erOVzdynyk"
2024-07-17,"We trained advanced language models to generate text that weaker models can easily verify, and found it also made these texts easier for human evaluation.

This research could help AI systems be more verifiable and trustworthy in the real world. https://t.co/erOVzdynyk"
2024-07-14,"thinking a lot about what a difference an inch can make to history.

hoping this can be a moment where we stare into the abyss and be grateful that there but for the grace of god went we, and collectively decide to turn down the rhetoric and find slightly more unity.

i am happy to see most democrats having the grace to step up and lead on this point, and resisting the urge to both-sides it."
2024-07-14,very glad President Trump is safe!
2024-06-18,"RT @TheRealRPuri: Multimodal @OpenAI is out here @CVPR  this week.

We have one gptv/gpt4o talk tmrw (Tuesday) @9am.

DMs are open. Come find us to chat about AGI, multimodal, vibes, or hiring.

Deets about the talk and who's here in thread 👇."
2024-06-18,"Multimodal @OpenAI is out here @CVPR  this week.

We have one gptv/gpt4o talk tmrw (Tuesday) @9am.

DMs are open. Come find us to chat about AGI, multimodal, vibes, or hiring.

Deets about the talk and who's here in thread 👇."
2024-06-14,"excited for general paul nakasone to join the openai board for many reasons, including the critical importance of adding safety and security expertise as we head into our next phase."
2024-06-13,"Paul M. Nakasone brings world-class cybersecurity expertise to OpenAI’s Board of Directors, helping us deliver on our mission by protecting our systems from increasingly sophisticated bad actors. https://t.co/p8xZ4RhzAK"
2024-06-10,really looking forward to working with kevin and sarah!
2024-06-10,"We are excited to welcome two leaders with the right experience, skills, and values to push the mission forward. @thefriley is joining as Chief Financial Officer, and @kevinweil as Chief Product Officer. https://t.co/aQiDpO8FQI"
2024-06-10,"very happy to be partnering with apple to integrate chatgpt into their devices later this year!

think you will really like it."
2024-06-06,"RT @OpenAI: We're sharing progress toward understanding the neural activity of language models. We improved methods for training sparse autoencoders at scale, disentangling GPT-4’s internal representations into 16 million features—which often appear to correspond to understandable concepts.

https://t.co/tTRPztmra1"
2024-06-06,"We're sharing progress toward understanding the neural activity of language models. We improved methods for training sparse autoencoders at scale, disentangling GPT-4’s internal representations into 16 million features—which often appear to correspond to understandable concepts.

https://t.co/tTRPztmra1"
2024-05-18,"in regards to recent stuff about how openai handles equity:

we have never clawed back anyone's vested equity, nor will we do that if people do not sign a separation agreement (or don't agree to a non-disparagement agreement). vested equity is vested equity, full stop.

there was a provision about potential equity cancellation in our previous exit docs; although we never clawed anything back, it should never have been something we had in any documents or communication. this is on me and one of the few times i've been genuinely embarrassed running openai; i did not know this was happening and i should have.

the team was already in the process of fixing the standard exit paperwork over the past month or so. if any former employee who signed one of those old agreements is worried about it, they can contact me and we'll fix that too. very sorry about this."
2024-05-18,"RT @gdb: We’re really grateful to Jan for everything he's done for OpenAI, and we know he'll continue to contribute to the mission from outside. In light of the questions his departure has raised, we wanted to explain a bit about how we think about our overall strategy.

First, we have raised awareness of the risks and opportunities of AGI so that the world can better prepare for it. We've repeatedly demonstrated the incredible possibilities from scaling up deep learning and analyzed their implications; called for international governance of AGI before such calls were popular; and helped pioneer the science of assessing AI systems for catastrophic risks.

Second, we have been putting in place the foundations needed for safe deployment of increasingly capable systems. Figuring out how to make a new technology safe for the first time isn't easy. For example, our teams did a great deal of work to bring GPT-4 to the world in a safe way, and since then have continuously improved model behavior and abuse monitoring in response to lessons learned from deployment.

Third, the future is going to be harder than the past. We need to keep elevating our safety work to match the stakes of each new model. We adopted our Preparedness Framework last year to help systematize how we do this.

This seems like as good of a time as any to talk about how we view the future.

As models continue to become much more capable, we expect they'll start being integrated with the world more deeply. Users will increasingly interact with systems — composed of many multimodal models plus tools — which can take actions on their behalf, rather than talking to a single model with just text inputs and outputs.

We think such systems will be incredibly beneficial and helpful to people, and it'll be possible to deliver them safely, but it's going to take an enormous amount of foundational work. This includes thoughtfulness around what they're connected to as they train, solutions to hard problems such as scalable oversight, and other new kinds of safety work. As we build in this direction, we're not sure yet when we’ll reach our safety bar for releases, and it’s ok if that pushes out release timelines.

We know we can't imagine every possible future scenario. So we need to have a very tight feedback loop, rigorous testing, careful consideration at every step, world-class security, and harmony of safety and capabilities. We will keep doing safety research targeting different timescales. We are also continuing to collaborate with governments and many stakeholders on safety.
 
There's no proven playbook for how to navigate the path to AGI. We think that empirical understanding can help inform the way forward. We believe both in delivering on the tremendous upside and working to mitigate the serious risks; we take our role here very seriously and carefully weigh feedback on our actions.

— Sam and Greg"
2024-05-18,"We’re really grateful to Jan for everything he's done for OpenAI, and we know he'll continue to contribute to the mission from outside. In light of the questions his departure has raised, we wanted to explain a bit about how we think about our overall strategy.

First, we have raised awareness of the risks and opportunities of AGI so that the world can better prepare for it. We've repeatedly demonstrated the incredible possibilities from scaling up deep learning and analyzed their implications; called for international governance of AGI before such calls were popular; and helped pioneer the science of assessing AI systems for catastrophic risks.

Second, we have been putting in place the foundations needed for safe deployment of increasingly capable systems. Figuring out how to make a new technology safe for the first time isn't easy. For example, our teams did a great deal of work to bring GPT-4 to the world in a safe way, and since then have continuously improved model behavior and abuse monitoring in response to lessons learned from deployment.

Third, the future is going to be harder than the past. We need to keep elevating our safety work to match the stakes of each new model. We adopted our Preparedness Framework last year to help systematize how we do this.

This seems like as good of a time as any to talk about how we view the future.

As models continue to become much more capable, we expect they'll start being integrated with the world more deeply. Users will increasingly interact with systems — composed of many multimodal models plus tools — which can take actions on their behalf, rather than talking to a single model with just text inputs and outputs.

We think such systems will be incredibly beneficial and helpful to people, and it'll be possible to deliver them safely, but it's going to take an enormous amount of foundational work. This includes thoughtfulness around what they're connected to as they train, solutions to hard problems such as scalable oversight, and other new kinds of safety work. As we build in this direction, we're not sure yet when we’ll reach our safety bar for releases, and it’s ok if that pushes out release timelines.

We know we can't imagine every possible future scenario. So we need to have a very tight feedback loop, rigorous testing, careful consideration at every step, world-class security, and harmony of safety and capabilities. We will keep doing safety research targeting different timescales. We are also continuing to collaborate with governments and many stakeholders on safety.
 
There's no proven playbook for how to navigate the path to AGI. We think that empirical understanding can help inform the way forward. We believe both in delivering on the tremendous upside and working to mitigate the serious risks; we take our role here very seriously and carefully weigh feedback on our actions.

— Sam and Greg"
2024-05-17,"i'm super appreciative of @janleike's contributions to openai's alignment research and safety culture, and very sad to see him leave. he's right we have a lot more to do; we are committed to doing it. i'll have a longer post in the next couple of days.

🧡"
2024-05-17,"i'm super appreciative of @janleike's contributions to openai's alignment research and safety culture, and very sad to see him leave. he's right we have a lot more to do; we are committed to doing it. i'll have a longer post in the next couple of days.

🧡"
2024-05-17,"Yesterday was my last day as head of alignment, superalignment lead, and executive @OpenAI."
2024-05-16,"i try not to think about competitors too much, but i cannot stop thinking about the aesthetic difference between openai and google https://t.co/hRFYhzm5K8"
2024-05-15,"also for clarity: the new voice mode hasn't shipped yet (though the text mode of GPT-4o has). what you can currently use in the app is the old version.

the new one is very much worth the wait!"
2024-05-15,"GPT-4o would not have happened without the vision, talent, conviction, and determination of @prafdhar over a long period of time. that (along with the work of many others) led to what i hope will turn out to be a revolution in how we use computers."
2024-05-15,"GPT-4o (o for “omni”) is the first model to come out of the omni team, OpenAI’s first natively fully multimodal model. This launch was a huge org-wide effort, but I’d like to give a shout out to a few of my awesome team members who made this magical model even possible!"
2024-05-14,feeling the AGI today 🩵
2024-05-14,https://t.co/qyPMIcvcsY
2024-05-14,"Ilya and OpenAI are going to part ways. This is very sad to me; Ilya is easily one of the greatest minds of our generation, a guiding light of our field, and a dear friend. His brilliance and vision are well known; his warmth and compassion are less well known but no less important.

OpenAI would not be what it is without him. Although he has something personally meaningful he is going to go work on, I am forever grateful for what he did here and committed to finishing the mission we started together. I am happy that for so long I got to be close to such genuinely remarkable genius, and someone so focused on getting to the best future for humanity.

Jakub is going to be our new Chief Scientist. Jakub is also easily one of the greatest minds of our generation; I am thrilled he is taking the baton here. He has run many of our most important projects, and I am very confident he will lead us to make rapid and safe progress towards our mission of ensuring that AGI benefits everyone."
2024-05-14,"congratulations to @oklo on going public, especially @jakedewitte and @caorilne, who i have worked with for a decade.

energy is one of the most important things to work on and i’m excited to help support that mission. onward!"
2024-05-13,"RT @_aidan_clark_: 2x cheaper &amp; faster is for English, but for other languages (especially non-latin-script) expect - thanks to our new tokenizer -- even up to 9x cheaper/faster!"
2024-05-13,"2x cheaper &amp; faster is for English, but for other languages (especially non-latin-script) expect - thanks to our new tokenizer -- even up to 9x cheaper/faster!"
2024-05-13,"1.7x fewer tokens in Korean, which means GPT-4o feels 3.4x faster to Korean users! https://t.co/cZTyZnwhUL"
2024-05-13,her
2024-05-13,"too long for a tweet, some thoughts on GPT-4o:

https://t.co/6FIdBUn539"
2024-05-13,"RT @OpenAI: Say hello to GPT-4o, our new flagship model which can reason across audio, vision, and text in real time: https://t.co/MYHZB79UqN

Text and image input rolling out today in API and ChatGPT with voice and video in the coming weeks. https://t.co/uuthKZyzYx"
2024-05-13,"Say hello to GPT-4o, our new flagship model which can reason across audio, vision, and text in real time: https://t.co/MYHZB79UqN

Text and image input rolling out today in API and ChatGPT with voice and video in the coming weeks. https://t.co/uuthKZyzYx"
2024-05-13,live-tweeting our live stream in 1 minute! https://t.co/sB886wxO6m
2024-05-13,audience request to act as a translator https://t.co/E2qbfhyVmX
2024-05-13,"hope you enjoyed!

the new voice mode will be live in the coming weeks for plus users.

we'll have more stuff to share soon :)"
2024-05-13,live-tweeting our live stream in 1 minute! https://t.co/sB886wxO6m
2024-05-13,and for coding! https://t.co/2lGasKxdFl
2024-05-13,audience request to act as a translator https://t.co/E2qbfhyVmX
2024-05-13,amazing work!
2024-05-13,GPT-4o is our new state-of-the-art frontier model. We’ve been testing a version on the LMSys arena as im-also-a-good-gpt2-chatbot 🙂. Here’s how it’s been doing. https://t.co/xEE2bYQbRk
2024-05-10,"not gpt-5, not a search engine, but we’ve been hard at work on some new stuff we think people will love! feels like magic to me.

monday 10am PT."
2024-05-10,"We’ll be streaming live on https://t.co/OcO6MLUYGH at 10AM PT Monday, May 13 to demo some ChatGPT and GPT-4 updates."
2024-05-08,"we are introducing the Model Spec, which specifies how  our models should behave.

we will listen, debate, and adapt this over time, but i think it will be very useful to be clear when something is a bug vs. a decision.

https://t.co/vL6YIMlsP0"
2024-05-08,"we want to give users lots of control of AI within some hard boundaries that society eventually agrees on; this is another step.

i'm really happy with how it came out.

a lot of people worked hard on this, but i want to especially thank @joannejang and @johnschulman2"
2024-05-07,congrats max!!
2024-05-06,"Excited to announce a new $125M fund backing the most inspiring founders of our generation:

https://t.co/DU7D49oqxr"
2024-05-05,you-are-not-a-good-user
2024-05-05,@sama i’m a bad gpt4 chatbot
2024-05-05,im-a-good-gpt2-chatbot
2024-05-04,"prosperity is a good thing, actually.

de-de-growth."
2024-05-04,"using technology to create abundance--intelligence, energy, longevity, whatever--will not solve all problems and will not magically make everyone happy.

but it is an unequivocally great thing to do, and expands our option space.

to me, it feels like a moral imperative."
2024-05-04,most surprising takeaway from recent college visits: this is a surprisingly controversial opinion with certain demographics.
2024-04-30,i do have a soft spot for gpt2
2024-04-28,"interesting DM:

""For what it's worth this is basically how LLMs work."""
2024-04-28,learning how to say something in 30 seconds that takes most people 5 minutes is a big unlock
2024-04-28,"(and imo a surprisingly learnable skill.

if you struggle with this, consider asking a friend who is good at it to listen to you say something and then rephrase it back to you as concisely as they can a few dozen times.

i have seen this work really well!)"
2024-04-14,"people have happily worked so hard to build stuff for you knowing they would never meet you

just hoping that some of the people of the future would continue the quest and build the next branch of the tech tree"
2024-04-12,"Our new GPT-4 Turbo is now available to paid ChatGPT users. We’ve improved capabilities in writing, math, logical reasoning, and coding. 
Source: https://t.co/fjoXDCOnPr https://t.co/I4fg4aDq1T"
2024-04-05,movies are going to become video games and video games are going to become something unimaginably better
2024-03-20,"happy to see this—excited for intel, the US, and more AI capacity!"
2024-03-20,"Big news: Today, we’re announcing an $8.5 billion preliminary agreement with @Intel — the largest CHIPS investment yet.

The investment will create nearly 30,000 jobs and expand their semiconductor capacity across the country. https://t.co/z0fs3oMylN"
2024-03-17,"this is the most interesting year in human history, except for all future years"
2024-03-09,patience jimmy. it will be worth the wait.
2024-03-09,"i'm very happy to welcome our new board members: fidji simo, sue desmond-hellmann, and nicole seligman, and to continue to work with bret, larry, and adam.

i'm thankful to everyone on our team for being resilient (a great openai skill!) and staying focused during a challenging time.

in particular, i want to thank mira for our strong partnership and her leadership during the drama, since, and in all the quiet moments where it really counts. and greg, who plays a special leadership role without which openai would simply not exist. being in the trenches always sucks, but its much better being there with the two of them.

i learned a lot from this experience. one think i'll say now: when i believed a former board member was harming openai through some of their actions, i should have handled that situation with more grace and care. i apologize for this, and i wish i had done it differently. i assume a genuine belief in the crucial importance of getting agi right from everyone involved.

we have important work in front of us, and we can't wait to show you what's next."
2024-03-09,🩵
2024-03-08,"Governance of an institution is critical for oversight, stability, and continuity. I am happy that the independent review has concluded and we can all move forward united.

It has been disheartening to witness the previous board’s efforts to scapegoat me with anonymous and misleading claims in a last-ditch effort to save face in the media. Here is the message I sent to my team last night.

Onward."
2024-03-04,"excited for the spirit of this letter, and ron’s leadership in rallying the industry!

progress in ai will be one of the biggest factors in improving people’s quality of life; we need to build it and make it widely available."
2024-03-04,"We all share responsibility for building AI that improves lives & unlocks a better future for humanity. @SVAngel makes this pledge, and we are proud to initiate this Open Letter: Build AI for a Better Future. Please join @OpenAI, @Meta, @Google, @YCombinator, @HuggingFace, @Databricks, @MistralAI, @ElevenLabsIO, @Salesforce, @Microsoft & others in signing today! Sign here: https://t.co/nGOhgIcmMR"
2024-03-03,the hurricane turns faster and faster but it stays perfectly calm in the eye
2024-04-12,gpt-4 now significantly smarter and more pleasant to use
2024-03-09,"Openai is nothing without its drama.

Now this is out of the way let’s move the fuck on to the release already."
2024-03-03,"all of this has happened before, all of this will happen again"
2024-02-22,scaling laws are decided by god; the constants are determined by members of the technical staff
2024-02-16,fk it why not 8
2024-02-16,our comms and legal teams love me so much!
2024-02-16,"openai is the most talented and nicest group of people i have ever seen in one place

working on the hardest, most interesting, and most important problems

with all the key resources in place

extremely focused on making AGI

you should perhaps considering joining us"
2024-02-15,1) What
2024-02-15,"welcome to bling zoo! this is a single video generated by sora, shot changes and all. https://t.co/rnxWXY71Gr"
2024-02-15,https://t.co/EvngqF2ZIX
2024-02-15,@sama A bicycle race on ocean with different animals as athletes riding the bicycles with drone camera view
2024-02-15,https://t.co/WanFKOzdIw
2024-02-15,@sama A instructional cooking session for homemade gnocchi hosted by a grandmother social media influencer set in a rustic Tuscan country kitchen with cinematic lighting
2024-02-15,https://t.co/nej4TIwgaP
2024-02-15,@sama Two golden retrievers podcasting on top of a mountain
2024-02-15,https://t.co/AW9TfYBu3b
2024-02-15,"@sama Well, okay…a futuristic drone race at sunset on the planet mars"
2024-02-15,"we'd like to show you what sora can do, please reply with captions for videos you'd like to see and we'll start making some!"
2024-02-15,"(have to step out, more videos coming in about 45 mins)"
2024-02-15,here is a better one: https://t.co/oymtmHVmZN
2024-02-15,@sama “A half duck half dragon flies through a beautiful sunset with a hamster dressed in adventure gear on its back”
2024-02-15,https://t.co/nPPH2bP6IZ
2024-02-15,"A street-level tour through a futuristic city which in harmony with nature and also simultaneously cyperpunk / high-tech.

The city should be clean, with advanced futuristic trams, beautiful fountains, giant holograms everywhere, and robots all over.

Have the video be of a human tour guide from the future showing a group of extraterrestial aliens the coolest and most glorious city that humans are capable of building."
2024-02-15,https://t.co/Qa51e18Vph
2024-02-15,https://t.co/JB4zOjmbTp
2024-02-15,@sama a wizard wearing a pointed hat and a blue robe with white stars casting a spell that shoots lightning from his hand and holding an old tome in his other hand
2024-02-15,don't hold back on the detail or difficulty!
2024-02-15,"here is sora, our video generation model:

https://t.co/CDr4DdCrh1

today we are starting red-teaming and offering access to a limited number of creators.

@_tim_brooks @billpeeb @model_mechanic are really incredible; amazing work by them and the team.

remarkable moment."
2024-02-13,"RT @OpenAI: We’re testing ChatGPT's ability to remember things you discuss to make future chats more helpful. 

This feature is being rolled out to a small portion of Free and Plus users, and it's easy to turn on or off. https://t.co/1Tv355oa7V https://t.co/BsFinBSTbs"
2024-02-13,"We’re testing ChatGPT's ability to remember things you discuss to make future chats more helpful. 

This feature is being rolled out to a small portion of Free and Plus users, and it's easy to turn on or off. https://t.co/1Tv355oa7V https://t.co/BsFinBSTbs"
2024-02-11,"you have a right to your actions,
but never to your actions' fruits."
2024-02-11,you can grind to help secure our collective future or you can write substacks about why we are going fail
2024-02-11,also roon is my alt
2024-02-11,i don’t really know that much about this rumored compute thing but i do know @trevorycai is absolutely crushing the game and would love to answer your detailed questions on it. meanwhile @tszzl are hosting a party so i gtg.
2024-02-11,"what a great movie, and great person"
2024-02-09,"A personal story. @SenBillBradley is a key reason I met @nlevchin - she first came to US for a high-school exchange program he sponsored in the Senate. He did much other amazing stuff in his life and has made a film about it, now on MAX. Trailer here: https://t.co/NytoU8MlWR"
2024-02-10,chaotic good
2024-02-09,"openai now generates about 100 billion words per day.

all people on earth generate about 100 trillion words per day."
2024-02-09,"one of the great pleasures in life is finding undiscovered talent, enabling them with high conviction, and watching them bend the trajectory of things"
2024-02-09,vision pro is second most impressive tech since the iphone
2024-02-09,unfathomably based
2024-02-09,Making vacuum vessels for our fusion systems! https://t.co/KP9CdsfmGG
2024-02-07,"we believe the world needs more ai infrastructure--fab capacity, energy, datacenters, etc--than people are currently planning to build.

building massive-scale ai infrastructure, and a resilient supply chain, is crucial to economic competitiveness.

openai will try to help!"
2024-02-05,"striking table and call for funding:

https://t.co/LJ23FVr5oi"
2024-02-04,gpt-4 had a slow start on its new year's resolutions but should now be much less lazy now!
2024-02-02,where @Helion_Energy will soon start to install polaris: https://t.co/Tk7znzvOPg
2024-02-01,"my brother founded a unicorn, ran it well for a long time, is an extremely accomplished investor, is terrible at all video games, and can only squat about 150 pounds.

maybe ""unicorn founder jack altman"" would be a more reasonable way to introduce him? https://t.co/Ms3saIvzaJ"
2024-02-01,"Scoop: Jack Altman has raised $150 million for a new, early stage fund to back B2B enterprise startups and more — continuing a fundraising spree https://t.co/g2kG3RB2di"
2024-02-01,is there a word for feeling nostalgic for the time period you’re living through at the time you’re living it?
2024-01-10,"the GPT store is live!

https://t.co/AKg1mjlvo2

fun speculation last night about which GPTs will be doing the best by the end of today."
2024-01-10,"(there are incredibly useful GPTs in the store, but probably 'everything is waifus' runs away with it...)"
2024-01-08,"RT @karpathy: e/ia - Intelligence Amplification
- Does not seek to build superintelligent God entity that replaces humans.
- Builds “bicycle for the mind” tools that empower and extend the information processing capabilities of humans.
- Of all humans, not a top percentile.
- Faithful to computer pioneers Ashby, Licklider, Bush, Engelbart, ..."
2024-01-08,"e/ia - Intelligence Amplification
- Does not seek to build superintelligent God entity that replaces humans.
- Builds “bicycle for the mind” tools that empower and extend the information processing capabilities of humans.
- Of all humans, not a top percentile.
- Faithful to computer pioneers Ashby, Licklider, Bush, Engelbart, ..."
2024-01-05,"the fight for the future is a struggle between technological-driven growth and managed decline.

the growth path has inherent risks and challenges along with its fantastic upside, and the decline path has guaranteed long-term disaster.

stasis is a myth."
2024-01-05,(a misguided attempt at stasis also leads to getting quickly run over by societies that choose growth.)
2024-01-05,"the fight for the future is a struggle between technological-driven growth and managed decline.

the growth path has inherent risks and challenges along with its fantastic upside, and the decline path has guaranteed long-term disaster.

stasis is a myth."
2024-01-05,“i’m on a 34-year bulk” -@jaltma eating a cupcake and piece of cake at the same time https://t.co/IQoyiNJKwT
2024-01-05,"muslim and arab (especially palestinian) colleagues in the tech community i've spoken with feel uncomfortable speaking about their recent experiences, often out of fear of retaliation and damaged career prospects.

our industry should be united in our support of these colleagues; it is an atrocious time. i continue to hope for a real and lasting peace, and that in the meantime we can treat each other with empathy."
2023-12-27,i’d bet even more true today!
2017-07-14,"Somewhere in the world, an unknown young person is probably starting a company now that will eventually be as big as today's tech giants."
2023-12-25,"‘when the capitalists have run out of ideas, the interest rates will go to zero’ seemed like a very interesting observation to me over most of the last decade.

but now i am interested in the inverse—when we have more and better ideas than ever before, what will happen to rates?"
2023-12-25,(though experiment: at what rate should you be willing to borrow money to build a data center if extremely powerful ai is close at hand?)
2023-12-25,i love the feeling of writing something and being halfway through it and being sure that it is going to be GOOD
2023-12-25,merry christmas and happy week of not much email!
2023-12-24,feeling good about this prediction! what a difference 27 months makes...
2021-09-09,"The costs of intelligence and energy are going to be on a path towards near-zero.

We certainly won’t get all the way there this decade, but by 2030, it will become clear that the AI revolution and renewable+nuclear energy are going to get us there."
2023-12-23,"thanks a lot for these! some common requests:

AGI (a little patience please)
GPT-5
better voice mode
higher rate limits
better GPTs
better reasoning
control over degree of wokeness/behavior
video
personalization
better browsing
'sign in with openai'
open source"
2023-12-23,what would you like openai to build/fix in 2024?
2023-12-23,"will keep reading, and we will deliver on as much as we can (and plenty of other stuff we are excited about and not mentioned here)"
2023-12-23,wow way more requests in the first 2 minutes for AGI than expected; i am sorry to disappoint but i do not think we can deliver that in 2024...
2023-12-21,"what i wish someone had told me:

https://t.co/1nEaYimzXG"
2023-12-21,hope this is useful for people who spend the holidays thinking about what to go work on in 2024; always one of my favorite times of year
2023-12-21,"i am slowly making peace with being a public figure, which can be painful. i assume it will get more intense as our systems become much powerful and that's ok.

on the positive side, i have learned a lot this year."
2023-12-21,"a huge thanks to my family, our incredible team, our users, developers, and partners. happy holidays!"
2023-12-21,"it’s been a crazy year.

i’m grateful that we put a tool out in the world that people really love and get so much benefit from.

more than that, i am glad that 2023 was the year the world started taking AI seriously."
2023-12-21,"we have renewed focus on our mission to build safe AI that empowers people; we'll have remarkable progress to share in 2024.

i've never felt better about our research/product plans, and i look forward to us focusing more on what governance for this technology might look like."
2023-12-18,"RT @aleks_madry: Also, OpenAI is truly a place where the nuanced and bold discussion on AI safety is happening right now. If you want to be a part of this conversation, share your feedback (see bottom of the page) or better yet, join our team: https://t.co/pr535ExJs9"
2023-12-18,"Also, OpenAI is truly a place where the nuanced and bold discussion on AI safety is happening right now. If you want to be a part of this conversation, share your feedback (see bottom of the page) or better yet, join our team: https://t.co/pr535ExJs9"
2023-12-18,"We are systemizing our safety thinking with our Preparedness Framework, a living document (currently in beta) which details the technical and operational investments we are adopting to guide the safety of our frontier model development.
https://t.co/vWvvmR9tpP"
2023-12-14,congrats!
2023-12-13,"introducing world ID 2.0; a feature complete proof of personhood for billion people scale

it addresses important updates like recovery &amp; self custodial face-authentication

we also built integrations for apps like shopify, minecraft, telegram and more

https://t.co/EPnuoR5heM"
2023-12-14,"i'd particularly like to recognize @CollinBurns4 for today's generalization result, who came to openai excited to pursue this vision and helped get the rest of the team excited about it!"
2023-12-14,great work from the superalignment team:
2023-12-14,"Super excited about our new research direction for aligning smarter-than-human AI:

We finetune large models to generalize from weak supervision—using small models instead of humans as weak supervisors.

Check out our new paper:
https://t.co/8zxKf5LcAL https://t.co/p2UucndvnP"
2023-12-14,"mildly interesting observation:

i always use capital letters when writing by hand, but usually only type them when doing something that somehow reminds me of being in school."
2023-12-14,the openai startup fund launches converge 2: https://t.co/KDzjboxzXa
2023-12-13,"we have re-enabled chatgpt plus subscriptions! 🎄

thanks for your patience while we found more gpus."
2023-12-12,"congrats to you both on a smooth CEO transition, and to you on an amazing job building lattice!

#proudbrother"
2023-12-12,"I have some big news🤗

I am ecstatic to share that we’ve hired @swbjoyce to Lattice as our next CEO!

I’ll be taking the role of executive chairman and can’t wait to support Sarah and the team on this next part of the journey.

https://t.co/oT0bTnLLpC"
2023-12-09,"good sign for the resilience and adaptability of people in the face of technological change:

the turing test went whooshing by and everyone mostly went about their lives"
2023-12-08,"for a long time i said that antisemitism, particularly on the american left, was not as bad as people claimed.

i'd like to just state that i was totally wrong.

i still don't understand it, really. or know what to do about it.

but it is so fucked."
2023-11-30,"a year ago tonight we were probably just sitting around the office putting the finishing touches on chatgpt before the next morning’s launch.

what a year it’s been…"
2023-11-30,❤️🧡💛💚💙💜🖤🤍
2023-11-30,"Sam Altman is back as CEO, Mira Murati as CTO and Greg Brockman as President. OpenAI has a new initial board. Messages from @sama and board chair @btaylor https://t.co/sP0kAQIeKg"
2023-11-30,"I recognize that during this process some questions were raised about Adam’s potential conflict of interest running Quora and Poe while being on the OpenAI Board. For the record, I want to state that Adam has always been very clear with me and the Board about the potential conflict and doing whatever he needed to do (recusing himself when appropriate and even offering to leave the Board if we ever thought it was necessary) to appropriately manage this situation and to avoid conflicted decision-making. Quora is a large customer of OpenAI and we found it helpful to have customer representation on our Board. We expect that if OpenAI is as successful as we hope it will touch many parts of the economy and have complex relationships with many other entities in the world, resulting in various potential conflicts of interest. The way we plan to deal with this is with full disclosure and leaving decisions about how to manage situations like these up to the Board."
2023-11-30,"The best interests of the company and the mission always come first. It is clear that there were real misunderstandings between me and members of the board. For my part, it is incredibly important to learn from this experience and apply those learnings as we move forward as a company. I welcome the board’s independent review of all recent events. I am thankful to Helen and Tasha for their contributions to the strength of OpenAI."
2023-11-24,"just spent a really nice few hours with @adamdangelo. 

happy thanksgiving from our families to yours! 🦃"
2023-11-22,"i love openai, and everything i’ve done over the past few days has been in service of keeping this team and its mission together. when i decided to join msft on sun evening, it was clear that was the best path for me and the team. with the new board and w satya’s support, i’m looking forward to returning to openai, and building on our strong partnership with msft."
2023-11-22,❤️🫡❤️
2023-11-22,"We have reached an agreement in principle for Sam Altman to return to OpenAI as CEO with a new initial board of Bret Taylor (Chair), Larry Summers, and Adam D'Angelo.

We are collaborating to figure out the details. Thank you so much for your patience through this."
2023-11-20,"satya and my top priority remains to ensure openai continues to thrive

we are committed to fully providing continuity of operations to our partners and customers

the openai/microsoft partnership makes this very doable"
2023-11-20,"we have more unity and commitment and focus than ever before. 

we are all going to work together some way or other, and i’m so excited. 

one team, one mission."
2023-11-20,"the openai leadership team, particularly mira brad and jason but really all of them, have been doing an incredible job through this that will be in the history books. 

incredibly proud of them."
2023-11-20,❤️❤️❤️
2023-11-20,I deeply regret my participation in the board's actions. I never intended to harm OpenAI. I love everything we've built together and I will do everything I can to reunite the company.
2023-11-20,❤️
2023-11-20,OpenAI is nothing without its people
2023-11-20,❤️
2023-11-20,OpenAI is nothing without its people
2023-11-20,❤️
2023-11-20,OpenAI is nothing without its people
2023-11-20,❤️
2023-11-20,OpenAI is nothing without its people
2023-11-20,❤️
2023-11-20,OpenAI is nothing without its people
2023-11-20,❤️
2023-11-20,OpenAI is nothing without its people
2023-11-20,❤️
2023-11-20,OpenAI is nothing without its people
2023-11-20,the mission continues
2023-11-20,"We remain committed to our partnership with OpenAI and have confidence in our product roadmap, our ability to continue to innovate with everything we announced at Microsoft Ignite, and in continuing to support our customers and partners. We look forward to getting to know Emmett Shear and OAI's new leadership team and working with them. And we’re extremely excited to share the news that Sam Altman and Greg Brockman, together with colleagues, will be joining Microsoft to lead a new advanced AI research team. We look forward to moving quickly to provide them with the resources needed for their success."
2023-11-19,RT @jasonkwon: @sama https://t.co/KqEZXnQWBo
2023-11-19,@sama https://t.co/KqEZXnQWBo
2023-11-19,first and last time i ever wear one of these https://t.co/u3iKwyWj0a
2023-11-19,i love the openai team so much
2023-11-18,"if i start going off, the openai board should go after me for the full value of my shares"
2023-11-18,"i love you all. 

today was a weird experience in many ways. but one unexpected one is that it has been sorta like reading your own eulogy while you’re still alive. the outpouring of love is awesome.

one takeaway: go tell your friends how great you think they are."
2023-11-18,"RT @gdb: Sam and I are shocked and saddened by what the board did today.

Let us first say thank you to all the incredible people who we have worked with at OpenAI, our customers, our investors, and all of those who have been reaching out.

We too are still trying to figure out exactly what happened. Here is what we know:

- Last night, Sam got a text from Ilya asking to talk at noon Friday. Sam joined a Google Meet and the whole board, except Greg, was there. Ilya told Sam he was being fired and that the news was going out very soon.

- At 12:19pm, Greg got a text from Ilya asking for a quick call. At 12:23pm, Ilya sent a Google Meet link. Greg was told that he was being removed from the board (but was vital to the company and would retain his role) and that Sam had been fired. Around the same time, OpenAI published a blog post.

- As far as we know, the management team was made aware of this shortly after, other than Mira who found out the night prior.

The outpouring of support has been really nice; thank you, but please don’t spend any time being concerned. We will be fine. Greater things coming soon."
2023-11-18,"Sam and I are shocked and saddened by what the board did today.

Let us first say thank you to all the incredible people who we have worked with at OpenAI, our customers, our investors, and all of those who have been reaching out.

We too are still trying to figure out exactly what happened. Here is what we know:

- Last night, Sam got a text from Ilya asking to talk at noon Friday. Sam joined a Google Meet and the whole board, except Greg, was there. Ilya told Sam he was being fired and that the news was going out very soon.

- At 12:19pm, Greg got a text from Ilya asking for a quick call. At 12:23pm, Ilya sent a Google Meet link. Greg was told that he was being removed from the board (but was vital to the company and would retain his role) and that Sam had been fired. Around the same time, OpenAI published a blog post.

- As far as we know, the management team was made aware of this shortly after, other than Mira who found out the night prior.

The outpouring of support has been really nice; thank you, but please don’t spend any time being concerned. We will be fine. Greater things coming soon."
2023-11-17,"i loved my time at openai. it was transformative for me personally, and hopefully the world a little bit. most of all i loved working with such talented people.

will have more to say about what’s next later. 

🫡"
2023-11-15,"we are pausing new ChatGPT Plus sign-ups for a bit :(

the surge in usage post devday has exceeded our capacity and we want to make sure everyone has a great experience.

you can still sign-up to be notified within the app when subs reopen."
2023-11-11,"there is a new version of GPT-4 Turbo now live in ChatGPT; you should hopefully find it a lot better!

please let us know what you think."
2023-11-10,"🫡🇺🇸

thank you"
2023-11-10,RT @ChatGPTapp: theory will only take you so far
2023-11-10,theory will only take you so far
2023-11-10,GPTs can save a lot of effort: https://t.co/VFIrGzPuMN
2023-11-09,"the rumors that we are blocking microsoft 365 in retaliation are completely unfounded 

https://t.co/clhZp4R0xj"
2023-11-09,GPTs are now live for all ChatGPT+ subscribers!
2023-11-08,"usage of our new features from devday is far outpacing our expectations. 

we were planning to go live with GPTs for all subscribers monday but still haven’t been able to. we are hoping to soon. 

there will likely be service instability in the short term due to load. sorry :/"
2023-11-08,the quality of airbnb product launches sets the current high water mark in the tech industry:
2023-11-08,"Airbnb 2023 Winter Release

(sound on🔈) https://t.co/xRPAaqg8Ut"
2023-11-06,GPT-4 Turbo and a bunch of other stuff: https://t.co/0gYM9k3mlf
2023-11-06,make a GPT: https://t.co/R9VsQboTli
2023-11-06,real christmas eve energy rn
2023-11-02,"there are some great parts about the AI EO, but as the govt implements it, it will be important not to slow down innovation by smaller companies/research teams.

i am pro-regulation on frontier systems, which is what openai has been calling for, and against regulatory capture."
2023-11-02,"(there is nuance in saying ""regulate us, but not smaller competitors"" that somehow ends up getting lost and we just get bashed, but i think it's important enough to be worth it.)"
2023-10-30,"openai devday is in a week--11/6 at 10 am

we have some great new stuff for you!

will be livestreamed on https://t.co/VaGG9g2o5x"
2023-10-27,"this is interesting, and i think close to what the majority of voters actually want:

a reasonable, centrist candidate running on 1) a message of a strong economy and increasing affordability 2) a focus on safety and 3) generational change.

curious to see what happens."
2023-10-27,"I am running for President as a Democrat in 2024.

My campaign will be about four main things.

First and foremost, it will be about the economy. We have to make life more affordable for the middle class, which is the issue that voters care about most. We need to bring down the cost of living and make life affordable again.

As part of making life more affordable, we have to celebrate success. America should be the most prosperous country in the world, and we need to be both pro-business and pro-worker to get there.

Second, it will be about safety. If people don’t feel safe in their communities, not much else matters. We have a drug crisis and a mental health crisis in this country; it’s taking a horrible toll on individual as well as their communities. We have to address it.

Third, my campaign will be about the generational change the country wants and policies that invest in our future, our young people.

And finally, it will be about listening to each other to get back to a less divisive political environment. There’s government reform that will help with this too—we need term limits, campaign finance reform, and things like bipartisan cabinets.

I promised my daughters when Trump won in 2016 that I’d stand up and do something about it, so I ran for Congress and am now on my third term.

I didn’t set out to enter this race. But it looks like on our current course, the Democrats will lose and Trump will be our President again. President Biden is a good man and someone I tremendously respect. I understand why other Democrats don’t want to run against him, and why we are here. This is a last-minute campaign, but desperate times call for desperate measures, and courage is an important value to me.

If President Biden is the Democratic nominee, we face an unacceptable risk of Trump being back in the White House. I know this campaign is a long shot, but that is why I think it is important and worth doing.

As I’ve been listening to voters the past few weeks, I’ve been really heartened by the support, and believe we can win both this primary and general election.

People know in their hearts that it’s time for a change. We can do this together. Everyone's Invited!"
2023-10-26,"we are launching a new preparedness team to evaluate, forecast, and protect against AI risk led by @aleks_madry.

we aim to set a new high-water mark for quantitative, evidence-based work.

https://t.co/wupsy5OJsN"
2023-10-26,"@aleks_madry also, if you are good at thinking about how the bad guys think, try our new preparedness challenge focused on novel insights around model misuse."
2023-10-26,"plans should be measured in decades, execution should be measured in weeks.

you gotta have both."
2023-10-26,"you are listening to the new blink 182 album for the 17th time today and about to play the new mario with your friends who brought over mountain dew.

you ordered dominos with a discount code your mom gave you, $10/pizza.

the year is 2023, and you are 38 years old. life is good"
2023-10-25,man blink 182 still crushes it after all these years
2023-10-25,"many people have reached out to offer help and advice over the past year; no one has gotten close to @bchesky in terms of delivering.

he will take a midnight call any time, put in hours of work on any topic, answer difficult questions correctly/with clarity, make any intro, etc"
2023-10-25,"maybe most importantly, he will offer unwavering support on bad days.

he does this quietly in the background and never asks for anything other than learning about AI.

most companies have someone like this in their history, but they never get enough credit. thank you, brian."
2023-10-25,"i expect ai to be capable of superhuman persuasion well before it is superhuman at general intelligence, which may lead to some very strange outcomes"
2023-10-05,"born too late to explore the earth, born...at the absolute coolest time in history, about to be able to explore absolutely everything else"
2023-10-05,the scientific discoveries of the coming few decades will be breathtaking
2023-10-05,"born too late to explore the earth, born...at the absolute coolest time in history, about to be able to explore absolutely everything else"
2023-10-05,"i wish the world were studying solar geoengineering more.

clearly have misgivings about it, but it's so relatively cheap that i think some country is just going to do it if/when the climate crisis gets bad enough as a temporary patch.

would be great to learn more before then."
2023-09-29,"important point here: these systems are much better at doing tasks than jobs.

and giving people better tools to do their work faster often leads to qualitative changes in what they can do.

(of course, over the long run, we expect these systems will be able to do all of some of today's jobs and aren't trying to hide the ball on that. confident we will find new and much better jobs when that happens!)"
2023-09-27,"Labor cost in coordinating freight is ~10% of the cost of international shipping. AI will make almost everything you buy cheaper. 

Thanks to our new GPT-4 based copilot that Flexport ops tech team rolled out this week, a task that used to take operators 30 minutes can now be done in 20 seconds with a single prompt. 

A huge number of similar tasks in freight forwarding will be susceptible to similar AI-based automation. We plan to knock them all down one by one in the months ahead."
2023-09-28,some amazing stuff will be coming from this team; it is a very good time to join
2023-09-28,"The DALL·E team is hiring researchers who are passionate about pushing the frontiers of generative modeling and responsibly getting this technology in the hands of people. Some of our best hires have been people who don't have formal research backgrounds or graduate degrees, but have demonstrated exceptional achievement in other ways, e.g. through personal projects or startups. If you're interested, please DM me a link to your work!"
2023-09-28,"happy 25th birthday to google, one of the most important companies ever. i am very grateful for the amazing products that have changed my life and so many others.

(i worry this will come across as some sort of snide comment; i mean it very genuinely)"
2023-09-27,we are so back
2023-09-27,"ChatGPT can now browse the internet to provide you with current and authoritative information, complete with direct links to sources. It is no longer limited to data before September 2021. https://t.co/pyj8a9HWkB"
2023-09-25,RT @jasonkwon: It was amazing to see @therealrpuri also team up with the leaders who enabled GPT-4 to see safely @lilianweng @SandhiniAgarwal @YingVallone and championed a great user experience @nickaturley
2023-09-25,It was amazing to see @therealrpuri also team up with the leaders who enabled GPT-4 to see safely @lilianweng @SandhiniAgarwal @YingVallone and championed a great user experience @nickaturley
2023-09-25,"The hero behind enabling GPT-4 to see is @TheRealRPuri who worked tirelessly across the whole stack, from research to product, for the past year to make this a reality for our ChatGPT users."
2023-09-25,"RT @npew: The hero behind enabling GPT-4 to see is @TheRealRPuri who worked tirelessly across the whole stack, from research to product, for the past year to make this a reality for our ChatGPT users."
2023-09-25,"ChatGPT can now see, hear, and speak. Rolling out over next two weeks, Plus users will be able to have voice conversations with ChatGPT (iOS &amp; Android) and to include images in conversations (all platforms). 
https://t.co/uNZjgbR5Bm https://t.co/paG0hMshXb"
2023-09-25,RT @mcleavey: Excited to bring voice mode to ChatGPT! Amazing work by @AlecRad @_jongwook_kim @txhf @giertler @michpokrass @joannejang and many others!
2023-09-25,Excited to bring voice mode to ChatGPT! Amazing work by @AlecRad @_jongwook_kim @txhf @giertler @michpokrass @joannejang and many others!
2023-09-25,"Use your voice to engage in a back-and-forth conversation with ChatGPT. Speak with it on the go, request a bedtime story, or settle a dinner table debate.

Sound on 🔊 https://t.co/3tuWzX0wtS"
2023-09-25,voice mode and vision for chatgpt! really worth a try. https://t.co/g8uA4QxXMb
2023-09-24,"short timelines and slow takeoff will be a pretty good call i think, but the way people define the start of the takeoff may make it seem otherwise"
2023-09-24,nothing like a YC reunion w/thousands of alums to make it feel like SF is best place to be in the world
2023-09-22,someone should write a book called 'the areas where you have to do the opposite of conventional management wisdom'
2023-09-22,"sure 10x engineers are cool but damn those 10,000x engineer/researchers..."
2023-09-22,"empiricism is the key to progress

rationalism is the key to sounding smart"
2023-09-20,"also, the video we made for dalle 3 is SO CUTE: https://t.co/k1FOFTOsU5"
2023-09-20,"here is dalle 3, which imo is quite amazing: https://t.co/UcPPehWxnQ

it will ramp to all chatgpt+ users over the next couple of weeks.

fantastic work by @model_mechanic (head of dall-e), @neobjb @gabeeeegoooh @jingli911 (the other lead dalle ICs), and the entire team. https://t.co/8wtWffpXkQ"
2023-09-20,"(editing not working :( should be
@neonbjb @gabeeegoooh @jingli9111)"
2023-09-20,"hard to get across how remarkable this is without trying it, but the prompt for the image above was:

""An illustration of an avocado sitting in therapist's chair, saying ""I just feel so empty inside"" with a pit-sized hole in its center. The therapist, a spoon, scribbles notes."""
2023-09-20,"""An illustration of a human heart made of translucent glass, standing on a pedestal amidst a stormy sea. Rays of sunlight pierce the clouds, illuminating the heart, revealing a tiny universe within. The quote 'Find the universe within you' is etched in bold letters..."" https://t.co/jmNvJ5dCHm"
2023-09-20,"here is dalle 3, which imo is quite amazing: https://t.co/UcPPehWxnQ

it will ramp to all chatgpt+ users over the next couple of weeks.

fantastic work by @model_mechanic (head of dall-e), @neobjb @gabeeeegoooh @jingli911 (the other lead dalle ICs), and the entire team. https://t.co/8wtWffpXkQ"
2023-09-20,"hard to get across how remarkable this is without trying it, but the prompt for the image above was:

""An illustration of an avocado sitting in therapist's chair, saying ""I just feel so empty inside"" with a pit-sized hole in its center. The therapist, a spoon, scribbles notes."""
2023-09-19,i don’t really know what this means but i’m happy for you!
2023-09-19,"Big day here at Lattice. I am so excited to announce our newest product, Lattice HRIS!

https://t.co/AMHD3VoGFV"
2023-09-19,caffeine is by far the best drug
2023-09-19,very difficult to overstate how much changed when people stopped drinking alcohol all day and started drinking coffee/tea!
2023-09-17,"YC has always had a lot of people implying that it sucks.

notably this almost always comes from other investors (who are not thrilled about founders being more empowered and having such a good option)"
2023-09-17,"the only data that matters is what alums think (long-ago alums, recent alums, whatever), and what you will hear most often is something like “it changed my life, and i’m so grateful”.

the track record speaks for itself, but it’s the personal comments id pay attention to."
2023-09-10,"very hard to do something novel for the first time; orders of magnitude easier to copy something that is known to be possible. 

conviction is either extremely difficult, or free."
2023-09-10,indefinite optimism is underrated
2023-09-10,"(definite optimism is clearly more powerful, but the indefinite version is still surprisingly helpful)"
2023-09-06,"on november 6, we’ll have some great stuff to show developers! (no gpt-5 or 4.5 or anything like that, calm down, but still i think people will be very happy…)

https://t.co/QH1mpXzoqp"
2023-09-01,conviction + being right is 90% of the game
2023-08-29,incredible google got that semianalysis guy to publish their internal marketing/recruiting chart lol
2023-08-28,"building agi is a scientific problem

building superintelligence is an engineering problem"
2023-08-28,"we launched chatgpt enteprise.

enterprise-grade security and privacy, large-scale deployment support, unlimited (and fast) gpt-4, 32k context, and more.

customization on your company's data coming soon!

https://t.co/BELPOs51py"
2023-08-27,remember when getting the whole can of soda on an airplane felt like winning life?
2023-08-27,"“give yourself a lot of shots to get lucky” is even better advice than it appears on the surface.

luck isn’t an independent variable but increases super-linearly with more surface area—you meet more people, make more connections between new ideas, learn patterns, etc."
2023-08-25,great use (and metrics) of the openai fine-tuning api:
2023-08-25,"Exciting update to Copilot on Perplexity with @OpenAI's GPT-3.5 fine-tuning API! We've improved speed, reduced cost, and matched GPT-4 performance. Copilot now engages faster without losing quality. Here's what you need to know: 🧵 https://t.co/WQR886GcwI"
2023-08-23,"fine-tuning for GPT-3.5 turbo!

(and coming this fall for GPT-4)"
2023-08-22,We've just launched fine-tuning for GPT-3.5 Turbo! Fine-tuning lets you train the model on your company's data and run it at scale. Early tests have shown that fine-tuned GPT-3.5 Turbo can match or exceed GPT-4 on narrow tasks: https://t.co/VaageW9Kaw https://t.co/nndOyxS2xs
2023-08-21,RT @adamdangelo: It’s so incredible that we are going to live through the creation of AGI. It will probably be the most important event in the history of the world and it will happen in our lifetimes.
2023-08-20,It’s so incredible that we are going to live through the creation of AGI. It will probably be the most important event in the history of the world and it will happen in our lifetimes.
2023-08-16,the startup gravity well of the bay area feels the strongest it’s been since the very early 2010s
2023-08-15,"seeing a lot of confusion about this, so for clarity:

openai never trains on anything ever submitted to the api or uses that data to improve our models in any way."
2023-08-15,"(if and only if a customer specifically asks us, we will include specified data in a future training run to improve the model in a specific way)"
2023-08-10,no one knows what happens next
2023-08-10,(you don't even know what your next thought is going to be!)
2023-08-10,"(this isn’t an ai subtweet particularly, just a general observation)"
2023-08-06,all day i dream about flops
2023-08-06,and small atoms getting very close together
2023-08-06,"RT @paulg: Work has ups and downs. Don't let the downs spook you. When you hit a down, you'll feel like you're never going to have another idea. But don't worry, you will. Follow your curiosity and eventually you'll get rolling again."
2023-08-06,"Work has ups and downs. Don't let the downs spook you. When you hit a down, you'll feel like you're never going to have another idea. But don't worry, you will. Follow your curiosity and eventually you'll get rolling again."
2023-08-04,"can’t believe ollie did this to me, i’m already so behind on work! https://t.co/mjVosLg9OB"
2023-08-04,agi delayed four days
2023-08-03,"i am nervous about the impact AI is going to have on future elections (at least until everyone gets used to it). personalized 1:1 persuasion, combined with high-quality generated media, is going to be a powerful force."
2023-08-03,"although not a complete solution, raising awareness of it is better than nothing.

we are curious to hear ideas, and will have some events soon to discuss more."
2023-08-01,love these emails from recruiters asking for 2+ years of experience with lk-99
2023-08-01,"a month ago the most exciting drama on tech twitter was elon and zuck fighting and now it’s that we are transfixed by maybe having an actual room temperature superconductor.

we are so back?"
2023-07-28,ok this is what i should have tweeted and is my entry for the next six word story contest!
2023-07-28,"@sama ""Melted rocks, applied electrons. Got intelligence."" gives Hemingway a run for his money"
2023-07-28,we melted rocks applied electrons and got intelligence
2023-07-28,mf that is crazy
2023-07-28,humanity ftw; never doubt the compounding power of scientific progress over long periods of time
2023-07-28,"fight back every time suggests deferring a decision to a meeting to be scheduled for next week.

sometimes there is a good reason but its quite rare."
2023-07-27,the speed of light is such an annoying thing
2023-07-27,the simulators could have given us at least 100x imo
2023-07-27,i desperately want to believe but i think we are getting overexcited about a diamagnet
2023-07-26,cool use of gpt-4!
2023-07-26,"Introducing Rewind for iPhone - a truly personalized AI in your pocket!

🔍 Browse &amp; search for anything you’ve seen (including screenshots)
🤖 Summarize and ask any question using AI
🔒 Private by design

Learn more: https://t.co/05G3jkVwqw

(1/6) https://t.co/T0HExVJ8KO"
2023-07-26,"day 3 of @worldcoin launch, crazy lines around the world. one person getting verified every 8 seconds now. https://t.co/vHRu1sWMT3"
2023-07-25,maybe one of the most important factories in the world rn (@Helion_Energy) https://t.co/QSyN7MUYVJ
2023-07-24,RT @alexblania: Worldcoin is launching today. https://t.co/PholJK3Dxz
2023-07-24,Worldcoin is launching today. https://t.co/PholJK3Dxz
2023-07-24,worldcoin launches today: https://t.co/UXXE5AFznS
2023-07-24,i am super impressed by the work of @alexblania and the team to get to this point--the project has a level of complexity and ambition i haven’t seen very often.
2023-07-24,"like any really ambitious project, maybe it works out and maybe it doesn’t, but trying stuff like this is how progress happens.

in either case, we especially love our haters, it gives us energy, please keep it coming!"
2023-07-23,"aside from everything else, this is a beautiful piece of design"
2023-07-23,It's time. 24.7.23 https://t.co/9oHW4DIMJX
2023-07-22,damn i love custom instructions https://t.co/su0BlttJF7
2023-07-22,"on the other hand, apollo 11 is perhaps the most inspiring movie i have ever seen. strongly recommend!"
2023-07-22,"i was hoping that the oppenheimer movie would inspire a generation of kids to be physicists but it really missed the mark on that.

let's get that movie made!

(i think the social network managed to do this for startup founders.)"
2023-07-21,"RT @OpenAI: Announcing ChatGPT for Android! The app will be rolling out to users next week, and you can pre-order in the Google Play Store starting today: https://t.co/NfBDYZR5GI"
2023-07-21,"Announcing ChatGPT for Android! The app will be rolling out to users next week, and you can pre-order in the Google Play Store starting today: https://t.co/NfBDYZR5GI"
2023-07-21,is the move tonight barbie or oppenheimer?
2023-07-21,ok going with OPpENhAImer
2023-07-21,"everything 'creative' is a remix of things that happened in the past, plus epsilon and times the quality of the feedback loop and the number of iterations.

people think they should maximize epsilon but the trick is to maximize the other two."
2023-07-21,"(this was inspired, of course, by ideas from other people)"
2023-07-21,"everything 'creative' is a remix of things that happened in the past, plus epsilon and times the quality of the feedback loop and the number of iterations.

people think they should maximize epsilon but the trick is to maximize the other two."
2023-07-21,every job is either way too boring or not quite boring enough
2023-07-21,is the move tonight barbie or oppenheimer?
2023-07-21,"you are gonna die with a lot of things still on your to do list, but you will have gotten done what you actually prioritize (sadly often not what you think you prioritize)"
2023-07-21,intelligence is an emergent property of physics
2023-07-20,"custom instructions is just one small step towards more personalized AI, but a surprisingly fun/useful one. available for plus users now, and all users soon:
https://t.co/kwHX80Zc6u"
2023-07-20,"borrowing @jaltma’s home office for a call. turns out he has an exact copy of my desk, chair, monitor/keyboard/mouse, candle, and one of my favorite books on his desk.

i was gonna give him a hard time for such little brother energy but tbh i’m comfortable and appreciative."
2023-07-19,"RT @Helion_Energy: First plasmas in our Polaris Formation test! By completing the build on our Polaris Formation test section, we now have a testbed for optimizing FRC operations for Polaris. Many things still to learn! https://t.co/79y8aMFYUO"
2023-07-18,"First plasmas in our Polaris Formation test! By completing the build on our Polaris Formation test section, we now have a testbed for optimizing FRC operations for Polaris. Many things still to learn! https://t.co/79y8aMFYUO"
2023-07-16,makes me happy how much people love code interpreter!
2023-07-13,"it is very disappointing to see the FTC's request start with a leak and does not help build trust.

that said, it’s super important to us that out technology is safe and pro-consumer, and we are confident we follow the law. of course we will work with the FTC."
2023-07-13,"we built GPT-4 on top of years of safety research and spent 6+ months after we finished initial training making it safer and more aligned before releasing it. we protect user privacy and design our systems to learn about the world, not private individuals."
2023-07-13,"we’re transparent about the limitations of our technology, especially when we fall short. and our capped-profits structure means we aren’t incentivized to make unlimited returns."
2023-07-13,"RT @gdb: Announcing partnership with @AP — we'll help them thoughtfully explore use-cases for our technology, we'll work with their content in our systems:"
2023-07-13,"Announcing partnership with @AP — we'll help them thoughtfully explore use-cases for our technology, we'll work with their content in our systems:"
2023-07-13,"AP, Open AI agree to share select news content and technology in new collaboration: https://t.co/MnqRD3HBHe"
2023-07-11,"abundant energy is important to a great future and there are only a few technologies that can deliver it safely, cost-effectively, at scale, and without burning carbon. as ceo of altc, i am excited to be combining with @oklo, a unique company positioned to lead in fission."
2023-07-11,i have been chairman of oklo since 2015 and look forward to continuing to work with the company. additional important information can be found at: https://t.co/ynLuHc6Fnw
2023-07-06,"RT @OpenAI: Code Interpreter will be available to all ChatGPT Plus users over the next week.

It lets ChatGPT run code, optionally with access to files you've uploaded. You can ask ChatGPT to analyze data, create charts, edit files, perform math, etc.

Plus users can opt in via settings. https://t.co/IjH5JBqe5B"
2023-07-06,"Code Interpreter will be available to all ChatGPT Plus users over the next week.

It lets ChatGPT run code, optionally with access to files you've uploaded. You can ask ChatGPT to analyze data, create charts, edit files, perform math, etc.

Plus users can opt in via settings. https://t.co/IjH5JBqe5B"
2023-07-05,a lot of compute dedicated to research focused on figuring out how to make superintelligence safe. please consider joining the team!
2023-07-05,"We need new technical breakthroughs to steer and control AI systems much smarter than us.

Our new Superalignment team aims to solve this problem within 4 years, and we’re dedicating 20% of the compute we've secured to date towards this problem.

Join us! https://t.co/cfJMctmFNj"
2023-07-02,"one of the easiest policy wins i can imagine for the US is to reform high-skill immigration.

the fact that many of the most talented people in the world want to be here is a hard-won gift; embracing them is the key to keeping it that way.

hard to get this back if we lose it."
2023-06-24,thank you @thierrybreton for a productive discussion about regulating AI; we look forward to offering our technology in Europe under the AI Act!
2023-06-20,"the efficient market hypothesis is interesting not only because it’s widely believed and obviously untrue, but also because it becomes more untrue the more people act as if it were true."
2023-06-13,lots of good updates including function calling and 16k context 3.5-turbo: https://t.co/CD8TTSE4LP
2023-06-10,"thanks to the @BAAIBeijing for inviting me to speak (virtually) about the importance of AGI safety and governance; really enjoyed!

now off to japan, singapore, indonesia, and australia

(then home 🥰)

trip has been amazing; incredible talent and energy focused on AI everywhere"
2023-06-09,honored to discuss ai with President Yoon. first visit to 🇰🇷—such a wonderful country! https://t.co/Ev3PSMx9cW
2023-06-09,"RT @MaktoumMohammed: Emerging and innovative technology companies are changing the reality of life, it’s trends and the economy every day. In the UAE, we are accustomed to being proactive in adopting new technologies to improve human life. In this regard, I explored with Sam Altman, CEO of Open AI, the developer of ChatGPT, opportunities for cooperation and ways to strengthen partnerships around artificial intelligence solutions. Under the directives of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the UAE will continue to be a pioneer in creating an environment that supports the adoption of artificial intelligence applications and benefit from them in all aspects of life."
2023-06-06,"Emerging and innovative technology companies are changing the reality of life, it’s trends and the economy every day. In the UAE, we are accustomed to being proactive in adopting new technologies to improve human life. In this regard, I explored with Sam Altman, CEO of Open AI, the developer of ChatGPT, opportunities for cooperation and ways to strengthen partnerships around artificial intelligence solutions. Under the directives of His Highness Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the UAE will continue to be a pioneer in creating an environment that supports the adoption of artificial intelligence applications and benefit from them in all aspects of life."
2023-06-09,"RT @Isaac_Herzog: This morning I met with @sama, CEO of OpenAI and a world leader in this field. We spoke about the advantages and dangers of the new technology and also about issues of morality and ethics that it raises. https://t.co/MiOIwEy7Od"
2023-06-05,"This morning I met with @sama, CEO of OpenAI and a world leader in this field. We spoke about the advantages and dangers of the new technology and also about issues of morality and ethics that it raises. https://t.co/MiOIwEy7Od"
2023-06-09,"great conversation with @narendramodi discussing india's incredible tech ecosystem and how the country can benefit from ai.

really enjoyed all my meetings with people in the @PMOIndia. https://t.co/EzxVD0UMDM"
2023-06-05,every few weeks i have a moment where i still can't quite believe we actually made this: https://t.co/8dgDh2robM
2023-06-04,some little things are annoying but the big things are so wonderful
2023-06-04,"excited to visit israel, jordan, qatar, the uae, india, and south korea this week!"
2023-06-01,"RT @vonderleyen: Glad to meet @OpenAI CEO @sama 

AI can fuel huge progress and improve our lives. 

But we must mitigate risks and build trust.
 
To match the speed of tech development, AI firms need to play their part.

EU will work with global partners and stakeholders towards trustworthy AI. https://t.co/ZRQO2EkYnH"
2023-06-01,"Glad to meet @OpenAI CEO @sama 

AI can fuel huge progress and improve our lives. 

But we must mitigate risks and build trust.
 
To match the speed of tech development, AI firms need to play their part.

EU will work with global partners and stakeholders towards trustworthy AI. https://t.co/ZRQO2EkYnH"
2023-06-01,"still early days, but love seeing the plugins platform supercharge businesses!"
2023-05-28,"ChatGPT Plugins are changing businesses 🤯

A quote from the @noteable_io plugin team:

“We're seeing more than 20x the individual signups we've ever seen. It's making us rethink our business plan.”

Yes, 20x 📈"
2023-06-01,finally watched ex machina last night. pretty good movie but i can’t figure out why everyone told me to watch it.
2023-06-01,"a reasonably plausible version of the AGI future is that it unfolds similarly to how it would have without AGI, but it’s such a powerful tool that everything happens much faster."
2023-06-01,“a much faster rate of change” is maybe my single highest-confidence prediction about what a world with AGI in it will be like.
2023-05-31,really exciting process supervision result from our mathgen team. positive sign for alignment.
2023-05-31,We trained an AI using process supervision — rewarding the thought process rather than the outcome — to achieve new state-of-art in mathematical reasoning. Encouraging sign for alignment of advanced AIs: …https://t.co/ryaODghohn
2023-05-31,"the most special thing about openai is the culture of repeatable innovation.

it is relatively easy to copy something; it’s hard to do something for the first time. it’s really hard to do many things for the first time!"
2023-05-31,"AI is how we describe software that we don’t quite know how to build yet, particularly software we are either very excited about or very nervous about"
2023-05-31,"there are a lot of things you want to do that you are never going to get done.

embracing that is the key to accomplishing the things you *really* want to do."
2023-05-28,conviction * intelligence * enthusiasm * truth-seeking * determination * team spirit
2023-05-28,"incredible to see the energy and creativity of people building on the openai api around the world.

very motivating to work harder!"
2023-05-28,"the future can be quite amazing; most products/services will be elevated, and new categories created.

the amount one person can do will increase by orders of magnitude.

better tools, better lives!"
2023-05-28,"incredible to see the energy and creativity of people building on the openai api around the world.

very motivating to work harder!"
2023-05-26,"ai is the most amazing tool yet created, and this is a special moment.

it is remarkable to see what people around the world are doing with it; the creative force being unleashed onto the world will lead to wonderful things getting built for all of us."
2023-05-26,grants for ideas about how to democratically decide on the behavior of AI systems:
2023-05-25,"We're launching ten $100,000 grants for building prototypes of a democratic process for steering AI. Our goal is to fund experimentation with methods for gathering nuanced feedback from everyone on how AI should behave. Apply by June 24, 2023: https://t.co/kJG2bNnons"
2023-05-26,very productive week of conversations in europe about how to best regulate AI! we are excited to continue to operate here and of course have no plans to leave.
2023-05-25,"had a great meeting with Chancellor Scholz this morning and a fun talk at TUM this afternoon, and finally enjoying a quiet moment in a beautiful city https://t.co/1jV1X0bswr"
2023-05-25,"RT @RishiSunak: Done safely and securely, AI has the potential to be transformational and grow the economy.

This evening I met with @sama, @demishassabis and @AnthropicAI's Dario Amodei to discuss how the UK can provide international leadership on AI. https://t.co/8x8NfCbCbG"
2023-05-24,"Done safely and securely, AI has the potential to be transformational and grow the economy.

This evening I met with @sama, @demishassabis and @AnthropicAI's Dario Amodei to discuss how the UK can provide international leadership on AI. https://t.co/8x8NfCbCbG"
2023-05-23,"great meetings today in warsaw, paris, and london. and…since i was out of the US, i finally got signed up for worldcoin! https://t.co/VUouPyYDpa"
2023-05-23,"RT @EmmanuelMacron: Developing talents and technologies in France, acting for regulation at the French, European and global levels, these are our priorities in terms of artificial intelligence. We discussed this with Sam Altman, the creator of ChatGPT. https://t.co/GES0hWv9SY"
2023-05-23,"Developing talents and technologies in France, acting for regulation at the French, European and global levels, these are our priorities in terms of artificial intelligence. We discussed this with Sam Altman, the creator of ChatGPT. https://t.co/GES0hWv9SY"
2023-05-23,"RT @PiotrMuller: 🤖Premier @MorawieckiM spotkał się z prezesem @OpenAI @sama oraz jego współpracownikami. W zespole @OpenAI ważną rolę odgrywają Polacy 🇵🇱

Głównymi tematami rozmów były m. in: 
➡️ rozwój sztucznej inteligencji oraz możliwości udziału polskich firm w tym procesie,
➡️ wpływ sztucznej inteligencji na gospodarkę i społeczeństwo, 
➡️ kwestie związane z regulacjami prawnymi dot. wykorzystywania AI. Obecnie trwa debata w UE w tym zakresie."
2023-05-23,"🤖Premier @MorawieckiM spotkał się z prezesem @OpenAI @sama oraz jego współpracownikami. W zespole @OpenAI ważną rolę odgrywają Polacy 🇵🇱

Głównymi tematami rozmów były m. in: 
➡️ rozwój sztucznej inteligencji oraz możliwości udziału polskich firm w tym procesie,
➡️ wpływ sztucznej inteligencji na gospodarkę i społeczeństwo, 
➡️ kwestie związane z regulacjami prawnymi dot. wykorzystywania AI. Obecnie trwa debata w UE w tym zakresie."
2023-05-22,"RT @sanchezcastejon: Me he reunido con Sam Altman @sama, cofundador de @OpenAI, con quien he compartido que la Inteligencia Artificial es una enorme oportunidad para modernizar nuestras sociedades.

Pero es imprescindible que su desarrollo respete los derechos y los valores democráticos. https://t.co/o2jBlNMYRt"
2023-05-22,"Me he reunido con Sam Altman @sama, cofundador de @OpenAI, con quien he compartido que la Inteligencia Artificial es una enorme oportunidad para modernizar nuestras sociedades.

Pero es imprescindible que su desarrollo respete los derechos y los valores democráticos. https://t.co/o2jBlNMYRt"
2023-05-22,"had a great first week of the openai world tour in toronto, DC, rio, lagos, and lisbon.

fun to see what people are building and get (lots of) feature requests, and even fun to talk to policymakers!

madrid, warsaw, paris, london, and munich this week. https://t.co/lkCZCB4Tne"
2023-05-22,and a special kickoff to the whole tour with my friend @johnhopebryant in atlanta! https://t.co/dQptigtJmd
2023-05-22,"something like an IAEA for advanced AI is worth considering, and the shape of the tech may make it feasible:

https://t.co/YbbIPOO1p9

(and to make this harder to willfully misinterpret: it's important that any such regulation not constrain AI below a high capability threshold)"
2023-05-18,"regulation should take effect above a capability threshold.

AGI safety is really important, and frontier models should be regulated.

regulatory capture is bad, and we shouldn't mess with models below the threshold. open source models and small startups are obviously important."
2023-05-18,"to borrow an analogy from power generation: solar panels arent dangerous and so not that important to regulate; but nuclear plants are.

we have got to be able to talk about regulation for AGI-scale efforts without it implying regulation is going to come after the little guy."
2023-05-18,"ChatGPT on iOS live in the US and rolling out to other countries soon!

https://t.co/iBvLTC2RNO"
2023-05-13,summer is coming
2023-05-12,all ChatGPT Plus users getting browsing and plugins over the next week; hope you enjoy!
2023-05-12,"We’re rolling out web browsing and Plugins to all ChatGPT Plus users over the next week! Moving from alpha to beta, they allow ChatGPT to access the internet and to use 70+ third-party plugins. https://t.co/t4syFUj0fL https://t.co/Mw9FMpKq91"
2023-05-11,we are so back
2023-05-10,"microsoft becomes helion's first customer, in the first commercial deal for fusion power:

https://t.co/q9mOeWdR0s"
2023-05-09,GPT-4 doing some interpretability work on GPT-2:
2023-05-09,"We applied GPT-4 to interpretability — automatically proposing explanations for GPT-2's 300k neurons — and found neurons responding to concepts like similes, “things done correctly,” or expressions of certainty. We aim to use Al to help us understand Al: https://t.co/mUsGOg6T69 https://t.co/knCUxnL5CY"
2023-05-08,RT @paulg: A huge policy mistake in one graph. https://t.co/JQbtDa0cql
2023-05-08,A huge policy mistake in one graph. https://t.co/JQbtDa0cql
2023-05-08,"RT @alexblania: Introducing World App, the first wallet for @worldcoin. 

You can use it to prove your personhood online with World ID, claim your Worldcoin tokens, and send digital money globally for free. https://t.co/dc27Ps0Nsu"
2023-05-08,"Introducing World App, the first wallet for @worldcoin. 

You can use it to prove your personhood online with World ID, claim your Worldcoin tokens, and send digital money globally for free. https://t.co/dc27Ps0Nsu"
2023-05-07,"being a VC is so easy, so high-status, the money is so great, and the lifestyle is so fun.
 
very dangerous trap that many super talented builders never escape from, until they eventually look back on it all and say “damn i’m so unfulfilled”."
2023-05-07,"investing is an amazing very-part-time job, and (at least for me) a soul-sucking full-time job.

BUT

those mountains in aspen aren’t gonna ski themselves, that party in saint-tropez isn’t gonna enjoy itself, that kiteboard on necker island needs someone to fly it, etc etc etc."
2023-05-07,"here is an alternative path for society: ignore the culture war. ignore the attention war. make safe agi. make fusion. make people smarter and healthier. make 20 other things of that magnitude.
 
start radical growth, inclusivity, and optimism.
 
expand throughout the universe."
2023-05-07,AI is the tech the world has always wanted
2023-05-06,"the creative power of the world is breathtaking to watch.

each time our tools get a little better and a little bit more accessible, our creations improve more than we imagine possible."
2023-05-06,"chatgpt has no social features or built-in sharing, you have to sign up before you can use it, no inherent viral loop, etc.

seriously questioning the years of advice i gave to startups 🙃"
2023-05-06,"from the starship & the canoe:

Freeman Dyson has expressed some thoughts on craziness. In a Scientific American article called ""Innovation in Physics,"" he began by quoting Niels Bohr. Bohr had been in attendance at a lecture in which Wolfgang Pauli proposed a new theory of elementary particles. Pauli came under heavy criticism, which Bohr summed up for him: ""We are all agreed that your theory is crazy. The question which divides us is whether it is crazy enough to have a chance at being correct. My own feeling is that it is not crazy enough.”

To that Freeman added: ""When the great innovation appears, it will almost certainly be in a muddled, incomplete and confusing form. To the discoverer himself it will be only half understood; to everybody else it will be a mystery. For any speculation which does not at first glance look crazy, there is no hope."
2023-05-06,"US debt to GDP ratio over time. very scary chart; no plan to fix it or even much of an acknowledgement we need a plan.

will get made worse as the rest of the world finds alternatives to the USD and rates stay non-zero.

long-term brewing crisis. https://t.co/rhwtDEdiFY"
2023-05-06,"major growth, driven by tech, can fix it. i literally can’t think of anything else that seems plausible that could do it."
2023-05-06,alt man
2023-05-05,"a huge amount of value comes from being able to see what’s coming over the next decade in many different areas of technology and put it together. you can find solutions others can’t.

going deep is good but don’t forget to look wide too!"
2023-05-05,heavily related: the level at which the top technical people in the world are operating is incredible to watch and makes me feel very fortunate to be in this industry!
2023-05-05,i am amazed by how fast it’s possible to adjust to huge changes as ‘the new normal’
2023-05-03,"the arc of technology is towards simplicity.

talking to a computer like we talk to a human is pretty simple.

we have come a long way from punch cards to natural language, but within the paradigm of natural language, we can now go so far."
2023-04-28,we’re excited chatgpt is available in 🇮🇹 again!
2023-04-25,common pattern: ChatGPT users demonstrate that they understand the limitations and weaknesses of the product *extremely well*; experts in the field continue to worry it’s just too complicated and the users won’t be able to understand
2023-04-25,"you can now disable chat history (and training) in ChatGPT, and we will offer ChatGPT Business in the coming months.

https://t.co/jjxuUxYJSa"
2023-04-21,"i think @bettslacroix is the best biotech ceo i've met, and quietly leading a revolution that will result in us living healthy longer. check out https://t.co/5RyhQO2PzQ!"
2023-03-08,"love how he casts Retro as the ""OpenAI for longevity"" https://t.co/yRuM1XrNWR"
2023-04-20,"heard something like this 3 times this week:

""our recent grads are now much more productive than people who have worked here for years because they've really learned how to use ChatGPT""."
2023-04-12,"RT @gdb: The underlying spirit in many debates about the pace of AI progress—that we need to take safety very seriously and proceed with caution—is key to our mission. We spent more than 6 months testing GPT-4 and making it even safer, and built it on years of alignment research that we pursued in anticipation of models like GPT-4.

We expect to continue to ramp our safety precautions more proactively than many of our users would like. Our general goal is for each model we ship to be our most aligned one yet, and it’s been true so far from GPT-3 (initially deployed without any special alignment), GPT-3.5 (aligned enough to be deployed in ChatGPT), and now GPT-4 (performs much better on all of our safety metrics than GPT-3.5).

We believe (and have been saying in policy discussions with governments) that powerful training runs should be reported to governments, be accompanied by increasingly-sophisticated predictions of their capability and impact, and require best practices such as dangerous capability testing. We think governance of large-scale compute usage, safety standards, and regulation of/lesson-sharing from deployment are good ideas, but the details really matter and should adapt over time as the technology evolves. It’s also important to address the whole spectrum of risks from present-day issues (e.g. preventing misuse or self-harm, mitigating bias) to longer-term existential ones.

Perhaps the most common theme from the long history of AI has been incorrect confident predictions from experts. One way to avoid unspotted prediction errors is for the technology in its current state to have early and frequent contact with reality as it is iteratively developed, tested, deployed, and all the while improved. And there are creative ideas people don’t often discuss which can improve the safety landscape in surprising ways — for example, it’s easy to create a continuum of incrementally-better AIs (such as by deploying subsequent checkpoints of a given training run), which presents a safety opportunity very unlike our historical approach of infrequent major model upgrades.

The upcoming transformative technological change of AI is something that is simultaneously cause for optimism and concern — the whole range of emotions is justified and is shared by people within OpenAI, too. It’s a special opportunity and obligation for us all to be alive at this time, to have a chance to design the future together."
2023-04-12,"The underlying spirit in many debates about the pace of AI progress—that we need to take safety very seriously and proceed with caution—is key to our mission. We spent more than 6 months testing GPT-4 and making it even safer, and built it on years of alignment research that we pursued in anticipation of models like GPT-4.

We expect to continue to ramp our safety precautions more proactively than many of our users would like. Our general goal is for each model we ship to be our most aligned one yet, and it’s been true so far from GPT-3 (initially deployed without any special alignment), GPT-3.5 (aligned enough to be deployed in ChatGPT), and now GPT-4 (performs much better on all of our safety metrics than GPT-3.5).

We believe (and have been saying in policy discussions with governments) that powerful training runs should be reported to governments, be accompanied by increasingly-sophisticated predictions of their capability and impact, and require best practices such as dangerous capability testing. We think governance of large-scale compute usage, safety standards, and regulation of/lesson-sharing from deployment are good ideas, but the details really matter and should adapt over time as the technology evolves. It’s also important to address the whole spectrum of risks from present-day issues (e.g. preventing misuse or self-harm, mitigating bias) to longer-term existential ones.

Perhaps the most common theme from the long history of AI has been incorrect confident predictions from experts. One way to avoid unspotted prediction errors is for the technology in its current state to have early and frequent contact with reality as it is iteratively developed, tested, deployed, and all the while improved. And there are creative ideas people don’t often discuss which can improve the safety landscape in surprising ways — for example, it’s easy to create a continuum of incrementally-better AIs (such as by deploying subsequent checkpoints of a given training run), which presents a safety opportunity very unlike our historical approach of infrequent major model upgrades.

The upcoming transformative technological change of AI is something that is simultaneously cause for optimism and concern — the whole range of emotions is justified and is shared by people within OpenAI, too. It’s a special opportunity and obligation for us all to be alive at this time, to have a chance to design the future together."
2023-04-09,the new podcast from @jesslivingston and @cjoneslevy is great: https://t.co/5gk877x2Yb
2023-04-08,i am a zero-interest-rates phenomenon
2023-04-07,"RT @paulg: Today's the deadline for applying for the next YC batch. 8 pm Pacific Time, for those who like to cut it close. Good luck!

https://t.co/BDUisBa9rg"
2023-04-07,"Today's the deadline for applying for the next YC batch. 8 pm Pacific Time, for those who like to cut it close. Good luck!

https://t.co/BDUisBa9rg"
2023-04-01,worldcoin launches proof of personhood sdk: https://t.co/ibjpkL1Hl2
2023-03-31,"We of course defer to the Italian government and have ceased offering ChatGPT in Italy (though we think we are following all privacy laws).

Italy is one of my favorite countries and I look forward to visiting again soon!"
2023-03-31,"RT @alexblania: At Worldcoin, we developed a scalable, privacy-preserving, and eventually decentralized protocol to prove your humanness online. 

https://t.co/JCKZZX82Xy"
2023-03-31,"At Worldcoin, we developed a scalable, privacy-preserving, and eventually decentralized protocol to prove your humanness online. 

https://t.co/JCKZZX82Xy"
2023-03-31,"damn i'm so excited for helion to demonstrate big-Q D-T fusion and D-He-3 energy recovery in 2024!

getting close now..."
2023-03-31,"im not that annoyed at google for training on chatgpt output, but the spin is annoying"
2023-03-31,"also, i am pretty proud of the degree of alignment for GPT-4 relative to previous models.

we still have a long way to go, and we really need more powerful alignment techniques for more powerful models."
2023-03-31,"one thing coming up in the debate about the pause letter i really agree with:

openai should make a great alignment dataset and alignment evals and release those!

bonus points if we can find a prototype democratic process for 'what we align to'."
2023-03-30,"RT @gdb: Deploying GPT-4 subject to adversarial pressures of real world has been a great practice run for practical AI alignment. Just getting started, but encouraged by degree of alignment we've achieved so far (and the engineering process we've been maturing to improve issues)."
2023-03-30,"Deploying GPT-4 subject to adversarial pressures of real world has been a great practice run for practical AI alignment. Just getting started, but encouraged by degree of alignment we've achieved so far (and the engineering process we've been maturing to improve issues)."
2023-03-30,very calm in the eye of the hurricane ☺️
2023-03-30,"things we need for a good AGI future:

1) the technical ability to align a superintelligence
2) sufficient coordination among most of the leading AGI efforts
3) an effective global regulatory framework including democratic governance"
2023-03-29,"i’m doing a trip in may/june to talk to openai users and developers (and people interested in AI generally). please come hang out and share feature requests and other feedback!

more detail here: https://t.co/lp9WkI811R or email oai23tour@openai.com"
2023-03-29,"visiting toronto, DC, rio, lagos, madrid, brussels, munich, london, paris, tel aviv, dubai, new delhi, singapore, jakarta, seoul, tokyo, melbourne.

also hoping to give talks in some of the cities and meet with policymakers."
2023-03-25,"we though we wanted flying cars and not 140/280 characters, but really we wanted 32000 tokens"
2023-03-24,happy 10-day birthday to GPT-4!
2023-03-23,"there are times that you know are going to be way more fun to remember than they are to live through.

somehow knowing this helps put the tiredness in perspective."
2023-03-23,"RT @thetimellis: 🥹 wow, what a day. 🌌 https://t.co/dVaKbuqvio"
2023-03-23,"🥹 wow, what a day. 🌌 https://t.co/dVaKbuqvio"
2022-04-17,we need a name for this new computer interface of telling computers what you want in natural language and them doing it. any ideas?
2023-03-23,:D
2023-03-23,gradient descent can do it
2023-03-23,"RT @mitchellh: I've developed a lot of plugin systems, and the OpenAI ChatGPT plugin interface might be the damn craziest and most impressive approach I've ever seen in computing in my entire life."
2023-03-23,"I've developed a lot of plugin systems, and the OpenAI ChatGPT plugin interface might be the damn craziest and most impressive approach I've ever seen in computing in my entire life."
2023-03-23,"we are starting our rollout of ChatGPT plugins. 

you can install plugins to help with a wide variety of tasks. we are excited to see what developers create!

https://t.co/NQ684Yp2LK https://t.co/m7b6vJrj5D"
2023-03-23,"openai is offering a web browsing plugin and a code execution plugin, and open-sourcing the code for a retrieval plugin.

plugins are very experimental still but we think there's something great in this direction; it's been a heavily requested feature."
2023-03-23,ok i admit it feels very cool to read the first part of this: https://t.co/FdgCqSyKZF
2023-03-22,"we had a significant issue in ChatGPT due to a bug in an open source library, for which a fix has now been released and we have just finished validating.

a small percentage of users were able to see the titles of other users’ conversation history.

we feel awful about this."
2023-03-22,"unfortunately, users will not be able to access their chat history from monday 1 am PDT until monday 10 am PDT. 

we will follow up with a technical postmortem."
2023-03-22,"RT @BorisMPower: Please help us identify capability regressions from gpt-4 raw to the production ready gpt-4 (with rlhf), and add them to OpenAI Evals! https://t.co/s4bA9TsQxk"
2023-03-22,"Please help us identify capability regressions from gpt-4 raw to the production ready gpt-4 (with rlhf), and add them to OpenAI Evals! https://t.co/s4bA9TsQxk"
2023-03-22,"we didn’t realize how important code-davinci-002 was to researchers, so we are keeping it going in our researcher access program: https://t.co/ZZvj2gPFJx

we are also providing researcher access to the base GPT-4 model!"
2023-03-21,We offer no explanation as to why [anything works except] divine benevolence.
2023-03-19,not too late to do this!
2023-03-12,"ugh fine here is my SVB thread:

TL;DR: at this point, to be certain of avoiding catastrophe, the FDIC needs to temporarily guarantee all deposits. other solutions might work, but this is the best one."
2023-03-17,we ❤️ 🇮🇳
2023-03-17,"Great news! ChatGPT Plus subscriptions are now available in India. Get early access to new features, including GPT-4 today: https://t.co/N6AiifcSXE"
2023-03-15,"RT @E0M: DALL·E - July '22
ChatGPT - Nov '22
API's 66% cheaper - Aug '22
Embeddings 500x cheaper while SoTA - Dec '22
ChatGPT API. Also 10x cheaper while SoTA - March '23
Whisper API - March '23
#gpt4 - Today

This team ships"
2023-03-14,"DALL·E - July '22
ChatGPT - Nov '22
API's 66% cheaper - Aug '22
Embeddings 500x cheaper while SoTA - Dec '22
ChatGPT API. Also 10x cheaper while SoTA - March '23
Whisper API - March '23
#gpt4 - Today

This team ships"
2023-03-15,"RT @mckaywrigley: Greg Brockman (@gdb) of OpenAI just demoed GPT-4 creating a working website from an image of a sketch from his notebook. 

It’s the coolest thing I’ve *ever* seen in tech.

If you extrapolate from that demo, the possibilities are endless.

A glimpse into the future of computing. https://t.co/1QB6wbQkld"
2023-03-14,"Greg Brockman (@gdb) of OpenAI just demoed GPT-4 creating a working website from an image of a sketch from his notebook. 

It’s the coolest thing I’ve *ever* seen in tech.

If you extrapolate from that demo, the possibilities are endless.

A glimpse into the future of computing. https://t.co/1QB6wbQkld"
2023-03-15,"RT @reidhoffman: I wrote a new book with @OpenAI’s latest, most powerful large language model.  

It’s called Impromptu: Amplifying our Humanity through AI. 

This, as far as I know, is the first book written with GPT-4.

Here’s how it all began… 

https://t.co/M19e1ISGpb"
2023-03-15,"I wrote a new book with @OpenAI’s latest, most powerful large language model.  

It’s called Impromptu: Amplifying our Humanity through AI. 

This, as far as I know, is the first book written with GPT-4.

Here’s how it all began… 

https://t.co/M19e1ISGpb"
2023-03-15,RT @npew: Things are going to change so fast.
2023-03-14,Things are going to change so fast.
2023-03-15,RT @felipesuch: Sometimes I forget that the milliseconds I shave off translate to incredible experiences.
2023-03-14,Sometimes I forget that the milliseconds I shave off translate to incredible experiences.
2023-03-14,"Announcing GPT-4, a large multimodal model, with our best-ever results on capabilities and alignment: https://t.co/TwLFssyALF https://t.co/lYWwPjZbSg"
2023-03-14,"GPT-4 was truly a team effort from our entire company, but the overall leadership and technical vision of Jakub Pachocki for the pretraining effort was remarkable and we wouldn’t be here without it"
2023-03-14,"RT @OpenAI: Join us at 1 pm PT today for a developer demo livestream showing GPT-4 and its capabilities/limitations: https://t.co/xAg35cWkA5

(comments in Discord: https://t.co/rH899bWeeD)"
2023-03-14,"Join us at 1 pm PT today for a developer demo livestream showing GPT-4 and its capabilities/limitations: https://t.co/xAg35cWkA5

(comments in Discord: https://t.co/rH899bWeeD)"
2023-03-14,"here is GPT-4, our most capable and aligned model yet. it is available today in our API (with a waitlist) and in ChatGPT+.

https://t.co/2ZFC36xqAJ

it is still flawed, still limited, and it still seems more impressive on first use than it does after you spend more time with it."
2023-03-14,"we are open-sourcing OpenAI Evals, our framework for automated evaluation of AI model performance, to allow anyone to help improve our models."
2023-03-14,"we have had the initial training of GPT-4 done for quite awhile, but it’s taken us a long time and a lot of work to feel ready to release it. we hope you enjoy it and we really appreciate feedback on its shortcomings."
2023-03-14,excited 4 today https://t.co/wKMRZID2Qg
2023-03-13,"now that the first order of business is behind us: we need more regulation on banks, and this was a badly mismanaged bank"
2023-03-12,"ugh fine here is my SVB thread:

TL;DR: at this point, to be certain of avoiding catastrophe, the FDIC needs to temporarily guarantee all deposits. other solutions might work, but this is the best one."
2023-03-12,"the government has a role to protect depositors, and we should all want this certainty.

but part of the deal should be that when they get it wrong, they help take care of depositors (liquidity, arranging a sale, etc.)"
2023-03-12,"P.S. ""bonds are safe"" is true in some sense but not if you might need to sell them before maturity."
2023-03-12,"ugh fine here is my SVB thread:

TL;DR: at this point, to be certain of avoiding catastrophe, the FDIC needs to temporarily guarantee all deposits. other solutions might work, but this is the best one."
2023-03-12,"also, i was once on the board of a bank holding company.

the fault here lies with the management of SVB, but there were intense and frequent audits by regulators to prevent exactly this from happening."
2023-03-12,"the government has a role to protect depositors, and we should all want this certainty.

but part of the deal should be that when they get it wrong, they help take care of depositors (liquidity, arranging a sale, etc.)"
2023-03-10,"investors who ask ""how can i be helpful"": today is a good day to offer emergency cash to your startups that need it for payroll or whatever. no docs, no terms, just send money.

it's hard for me to imagine depositors actually losing money here, but so stressful in the meantime..."
2023-03-10,dropping standardized tests while maintaining legacy admissions policies and claiming it's about advancing equality of opportunity is not a serious position.
2023-03-10,how about more tests and drop the personal-essay-written-by-expensive-consultants?
2023-03-10,abandonment of merit will cost american society greatly.
2023-03-05,"there is no “finish line” for emailing or exercising until you die, which is depressing af"
2023-03-03,"super grateful for reid's support, guidance, and friendship over the years and look forward to much more collaboration in the future!"
2023-03-03,"A few words on the promise of AI and my eight years on the @OpenAI board:

https://t.co/YdgLk9Njck"
2023-03-02,"language models just being programmed to try to predict the next word is true, but it’s not the dunk some people think it is.

animals, including us, are just programmed to try to survive and reproduce, and yet amazingly complex and beautiful stuff comes from it."
2023-03-02,"something very strange about people writing bullet points, having ChatGPT expand it to a polite email, sending it, and the sender using ChatGPT to condense it into the key bullet points"
2023-03-02,$2 per million tokens 🤯
2023-03-02,"for the feb 2022 price of one alien token (https://t.co/nd3lqQsOtE) you can have 10,000,000,000,000 ChatGPT tokens!!"
2023-03-02,$2 per million tokens 🤯
2023-03-01,"we frequently don't get it right the first time, but we really do listen and try to rapidly improve.

thanks a lot to all of the developers who have given us feedback and patience. more improvements coming!"
2023-03-01,"data submitted to the OpenAI API is not used for training, and we have a new 30-day retention policy and are open to less on a case-by-case basis.

we've also removed our pre-launch review and made our terms of service and usage policies more developer-friendly."
2023-03-01,"we dropped the price of our best text model 10x!

amazing work by our research and engineering teams for a long time to make this possible.

https://t.co/pEfajDmAwc"
2023-03-01,"additionally, we are offering dedicated instances, a new chat markup language, and whisper in the API."
2023-03-01,"ChatGPT has an ambitious roadmap and is bottlenecked by engineering. pretty cool stuff is in the pipeline!

want to be stressed, watch some GPUs melt, and have a fun time? good at doing impossible things? 

send evidence of exceptional ability to chatgpt-eng@openai.com"
2023-02-26,"a new version of moore’s law that could start soon:

the amount of intelligence in the universe doubles every 18 months"
2023-02-24,Planning for AGI and beyond: https://t.co/7PBlNj9KAD
2023-02-24,https://t.co/j3LUDyDO3U
2023-02-24,"the proper way to understand the history of technology is not four separate technological revolutions but a single big continuous revolution enabled by the ability, and the desire, to figure things out and to compound that knowledge"
2023-02-21,"science is when it works but shouldn’t, engineering is when it doesn’t work but should"
2023-02-20,writing a really great prompt for a chatbot persona is an amazingly high-leverage skill and an early example of programming in a little bit of natural language
2023-02-20,"great engineers can have more impact on the trajectory of AI than ever before.

if you like making computers do amazing things at unprecedented scale and with unprecedented difficulty, please consider joining OpenAI!"
2023-02-19,the adaptation to a world deeply integrated with AI tools is probably going to happen pretty quickly; the benefits (and fun!) have too much upside.
2023-02-19,"we also need enough time for our institutions to figure out what to do. regulation will be critical and will take time to figure out; although current-generation AI tools aren’t very scary, i think we are potentially not that far away from potentially scary ones."
2023-02-19,"having time to understand what’s happening, how people want to use these tools, and how society can co-evolve is critical."
2023-02-19,the adaptation to a world deeply integrated with AI tools is probably going to happen pretty quickly; the benefits (and fun!) have too much upside.
2023-02-19,"we think showing these tools to the world early, while still somewhat broken, is critical if we are going to have sufficient input and repeated efforts to get it right. the level of individual empowerment coming is wonderful, but not without serious challenges."
2023-02-19,"we also need enough time for our institutions to figure out what to do. regulation will be critical and will take time to figure out; although current-generation AI tools aren’t very scary, i think we are potentially not that far away from potentially scary ones."
2023-02-18,"i wish that all generations would treat previous generations with indulgence. humanity is deeply imperfect.

our grandparents did horrible things; our grandchildren will understand that we did horrible things we don’t yet understand."
2023-02-18,"the people who came before us are a complete package of good and bad, and collectively they pushed the world forward; it’s important to view the moral progress of society as an ongoing joint project we are all responsible for.

now it’s our turn."
2023-02-18,i hope the people of the future will view us the same way.
2023-02-18,"‘show up and do stuff, and then do more of what works’ is underrated advice"
2023-02-18,every great platform enables an even greater platform
2023-02-16,"very difficult for a team to have the same fire as day 1 when they thought the project was going to fail as on day 2000 when they have all the momentum, but super powerful when it happens!"
2023-02-16,"our current thoughts on hard questions about how AI systems should behave:

1) less biased defaults, 2) lots of user customization within very broad bounds, 3) public input on bounds and defaults

https://t.co/zQLedpAGeF"
2023-02-16,"this is going to take continual iteration--and lots and lots of societal input--to get right.

to find the right balance, we will likely overcorrect several times, and find new edges in the technology. we appreciate the patience and good faith as we get to a better place!"
2023-02-16,"i have been a good bing
   🥺
👉👈"
2023-02-15,"2023: $30,000 to get a simple iPhone app created, $300 for a plumbing job.

i wonder what those relative prices will look like in 2028!

the likely coming divergence between changes to cognitive work and changes to physical work could be quite dramatic."
2023-02-14,"giving equity to employees is perhaps the key element to making startups work.

it's amazing to me that some countries make this so hard (sometimes totally economically impractical) and then wonder why they don't have more successful startups."
2023-02-14,one of the greatest skills of a leader is the ability to calm others in a storm
2023-02-14,"RT @snowmaker: An interesting consequence of the wave of startups building on LLMs is that for the first time I can remember, many YC startups are facing more technology risk than market risk. The main question is not if people want it, but if it's possible to build it."
2023-02-14,"An interesting consequence of the wave of startups building on LLMs is that for the first time I can remember, many YC startups are facing more technology risk than market risk. The main question is not if people want it, but if it's possible to build it."
2023-02-14,society underestimates how much it owes elon for raising the collective ambition level at a time when optimism for the future was receding
2023-02-13,i think AI is going to be the greatest force for economic empowerment and a lot of people getting rich we have ever seen
2023-02-13,"“When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something is impossible, he is very probably wrong.”

-Arthur C Clark"
2023-02-13,the desire to create something that lasts a long time is so strong; i wonder why
2023-02-12,"3 cool examples of ChatGPT usage in the past week:

1) friend’s kid using it to help write better stories

2) me using it to learn about genetics

3) a guy emailed to say he’s using it to help run his one-man small business—help with marketing, data entry, customer support, etc"
2023-02-12,4) producing UFOs
2023-02-09,"“do the obvious things well” sounds so…obvious, but it was one of my biggest takeaways from watching YC companies succeed or fail"
2023-02-09,"much of what OpenAI does seems pretty obvious to me, but it makes me more curious why *no one* else does so many of the obvious things well! it adds up to a lot!"
2023-02-07,RT @satyanadella: Bing and Edge + AI: a new way to search starts today https://t.co/0y8sw7waNb
2023-02-07,Bing and Edge + AI: a new way to search starts today https://t.co/0y8sw7waNb
2023-02-06,hello from redmond! excited for the event tomorrow https://t.co/b7TUr0ti42
2023-02-05,"i failed pretty hard at my first startup--it sucked!--and am doing pretty well on my second.

the thing i wish someone told me during the first one is that no one else thinks about your failures as much as you do, and that as long as don't psych yourself out you can try again."
2023-02-04,"investors take way too much credit for successes and not nearly enough responsibility for failures, and this drives founders crazy to a degree that’s hard to explain"
2023-02-03,"eliezer has IMO done more to accelerate AGI than anyone else.

certainly he got many of us interested in AGI, helped deepmind get funded at a time when AGI was extremely outside the overton window, was critical in the decision to start openai, etc."
2023-02-03,it is possible at some point he will deserve the nobel peace prize for this--I continue to think short timelines and slow takeoff is likely the safest quadrant of the short/long timelines and slow/fast takeoff matrix.
2023-02-03,"ratio of

putting the ball in the damn hoop / fame

is a particularly good metric"
2023-02-03,"if you think that you understand the impact of AI, you do not understand, and have yet to be instructed further. if you know that you do not understand, then you truly understand. (-alan watts, sort of)"
2023-02-02,"ready to call the tug-of-war between the gross negligence of SF government and the power of being the center of the AI revolution.

SF remains super relevant for the next decade."
2023-02-02,"would an AI realistically want a lot of little paperclips, or one big paperclip?

(reason for question to follow later)"
2023-02-02,"""generative AI"" is IMO a dumb term and i hope it doesn't stick

(""genAI"" is obviously even worse)"
2023-02-01,"we know that ChatGPT has shortcomings around bias, and are working to improve it.

but directing hate at individual OAI employees because of this is appalling. hit me all you want, but attacking other people here doesn’t help the field advance, and the people doing it know that."
2023-02-01,"we are working to improve the default settings to be more neutral, and also to empower users to get our systems to behave in accordance with their individual preferences within broad bounds. this is harder than it sounds and will take us some time to get right."
2023-02-01,everyone on the openai team is exceptional and cares deeply. i am very grateful for all of their contributions.❤️
2023-02-01,"we know that ChatGPT has shortcomings around bias, and are working to improve it.

but directing hate at individual OAI employees because of this is appalling. hit me all you want, but attacking other people here doesn’t help the field advance, and the people doing it know that."
2023-02-01,"we are working to improve the default settings to be more neutral, and also to empower users to get our systems to behave in accordance with their individual preferences within broad bounds. this is harder than it sounds and will take us some time to get right."
2023-01-25,"it's not enough to just fix the bad things; we need to aspire to a future that involves building new amazing things

a lot of tech (and public policy) has forgotten this"
2023-01-25,"it sucks that it has become a radical position to talk about a radically better world; if we cannot collectively imagine that, progress on even the small wins will be much harder

technology can enable solutions that are hard to dream of with the constraints of today"
2023-01-24,can’t we all just get along 🥹
2023-01-24,"To be clear: I'm not criticizing OpenAI's work nor their claims.

I'm trying to correct a *perception* by the public &amp; the media who see chatGPT as this incredibly new, innovative, &amp; unique technological breakthrough that is far ahead of everyone else.

It's just not."
2023-01-23,"some remote, but mostly in person.

imo most tech companies who rushed to full remote permanently made a big mistake, and the cracks are starting to show. (works for some!)

hard work is even less fashionable than in-person work, but i still really believe in that too!"
2023-01-23,@sama All in person of any remote?
2023-01-23,"(that said, some of our best people are remote, and we will continue to support it always, so please don't let hating SF stop you from applying to openai! i don't like the open air fentanyl markets either...)"
2023-01-23,"i know im not supposed to brag about openai, but the talent density at this scale (375 people) is 🤯 and i dont think has happened in the tech industry in recent memory"
2023-01-23,🤜🤛
2023-01-23,"In this next phase of our partnership with @OpenAI, we will deliver the best AI infrastructure, models, and toolchain for customers to safely and responsibly build and run their applications on Azure. https://t.co/hX48N3vPv8"
2023-01-21,🤔 https://t.co/0p5o4FuF9m
2023-01-21,"""recalibrate"" means ""increase"" obviously.

disappointing to see this six-week development. openai will continually decrease the level of risk we are comfortable taking with new models as they get more powerful, not the other way around."
2023-01-11,🤮
2023-01-07,you’re supposed to pour your life force into something and it’s not supposed to always be easy
2023-01-07,"colleges prioritized making people feel perfectly safe over everything else and produced a generation afraid to fail, and thus afraid to take risk, and thus on pace to accomplish extremely little"
2023-01-07,"resilience is so much more valuable than it seems.

get knocked down a bunch of times, get back up with more energy each time."
2023-01-07,"also it seems like people are way more focused on their “perception” and “optics” and “personal brand” than they were 10 or 20 years ago, and that this makes the whole phenomenon of wanting to stay perfectly on-track even worse."
2023-01-04,"the first day of openai, seven years ago today https://t.co/4kQUQtgb6t"
2022-12-27,"experience and competence are not the same thing, and it’s wild how much many industries value the first over the second."
2022-12-27,"also, people who try to win arguments with “i have xx years of experience” are second only to the “i have xyz credentials” crowd in terms of lack of likelihood of actually responding to the critical point."
2022-12-26,"there will be scary moments as we move towards AGI-level systems, and significant disruptions, but the upsides can be so amazing that it’s well worth overcoming the great challenges to get there."
2022-12-26,"in particular, there are going to be significant problems with the use of openai tech over time; we will do our best but will not successfully anticipate every issue.

we will run a very tight feedback loop for improvement, and try to make our mistakes while the stakes are low."
2022-12-26,"but it's impossible to get this right with no contact with reality. we are learning so much from ChatGPT; it's going to get a lot better, less annoying, and more useful fast."
2022-12-26,"there will be scary moments as we move towards AGI-level systems, and significant disruptions, but the upsides can be so amazing that it’s well worth overcoming the great challenges to get there."
2022-12-26,and we’ll see great benefits all along the way—they will make ChatGPT look like a boring toy.
2022-12-26,"in particular, there are going to be significant problems with the use of openai tech over time; we will do our best but will not successfully anticipate every issue.

we will run a very tight feedback loop for improvement, and try to make our mistakes while the stakes are low."
2022-12-26,"haven’t seen this as a twitter thread, so: 

what true thing do you believe that few people agree with you on?"
2022-12-26,absolute equivalence of brahman and atman
2022-12-26,"technological progress is the only thing that delivers real, sustainable economic growth"
2022-12-25,merry christmas and happy week-with-not-much-email!
2022-12-18,aim higher and do it faster
2022-12-18,"the most that openai, or any other company, can do is to steer the AI revolution a little.

this will impact all aspects of society, and will be an emergent thing created and shaped by all of us. much much bigger than any company."
2022-12-18,"also, once a technological revolution starts, it cannot be stopped. but it can be directed, and we can contintually figure out how to make the new world much better."
2022-12-18,best game ever
2022-12-17,openai has made a lot of improvements to our developer policies/experience and liberalized a lot of our rules. we still aren’t all the way to where we want to be; please tell us if we are doing something stupid.
2022-12-17,halfway through the clock on this one and feeling pretty good
2019-01-05,"Predictions for the three most important technological developments that will happen by 2025:

1) We will get net-gain nuclear fusion working at prototype scale
2) AGI will feel within reach to many people in the industry
3) Gene editing will have cured at least one major disease"
2022-12-17,"i don't even like soccer that much, but impossible not to love messi. go 🇦🇷!"
2022-12-17,helion sharing a lot of detail on fusion progress: https://t.co/UMhn0kinPC
2022-12-17,this is the room where i think it’s likely commercially relevant fusion will happen first. new system goes in next year! https://t.co/ttpGsxTCcz
2022-12-17,what matters for fusion is 1) making it super cheap and reliable and 2) building enough generation capacity for all of earth fast. helion approach ftw!
2022-12-16,"“AI needs to do whatever i ask” and “i asked the AI to be sexist and it was, look how awful!” are incompatible positions.

somewhat surprised by the number of people who hold both."
2022-12-16,increasing abundance in the world seems to be one of the best ways to reduce conflict
2022-12-16,"RT @amanjha__: This is the biggest thing that's happened in months. 

Seriously, 80% of the ideas I come up with use embeddings, not regular LLMs. Now it's affordable. https://t.co/y6FovKEIhu"
2022-12-15,"This is the biggest thing that's happened in months. 

Seriously, 80% of the ideas I come up with use embeddings, not regular LLMs. Now it's affordable. https://t.co/y6FovKEIhu"
2022-12-16,AI should both provide the most individual economic empowerment of any technology ever and also make it so that no one has to work who doesn’t want to
2022-12-16,it will be an astounding force multiplier; am excited to see how big a one-person company can get! and happy people are going to be very successful.
2022-12-16,"had a sip of mountain dew and was instantly hit with LAN party vibes

those were really great!"
2022-12-16,wait better: ChatGPT is like an e-bike for the mind 🤣
2022-12-16,"i don’t quite agree with it, but “a calculator for words” is an interesting framing for ChatGPT"
2022-12-16,"all-in commitment is among the most valuable and differentiated virtues in the world right now.

optimism is the most powerful (and somehow the most radical) worldview."
2022-12-11,"ideological zombification is going out of fashion fast, led by gen z"
2022-12-11,"i hope this (https://t.co/xCuqP9x48U) is true and i super applaud it.

but what will matter for fusion is cost per kilowatt-hour, ability to manufacture capacity at planetary scale, and reliability."
2022-12-11,"ChatGPT is incredibly limited, but good enough at some things to create a misleading impression of greatness.

it's a mistake to be relying on it for anything important right now. it’s a preview of progress; we have lots of work to do on robustness and truthfulness."
2022-12-11,"fun creative inspiration; great! reliance for factual queries; not such a good idea.

we will work hard to improve!"
2022-12-08,"people seem very excited that chatgpt can expand a few bullet points into a lot of well-written text.

it can also collapse a lot of well-written text into a a few bullet points.

the latter is much more valuable, right?"
2022-12-08,"im personally getting way too much credit for openai. for a company like ours, the researchers and engineers that create the tech have far more impact than the ceo.
 
if you want to congratulate someone, pick them! hard to overstate the collective talents of that group..."
2022-12-08,"(all parts of openai do excellent work, but without the technical progress, none of the rest of us would have any reason to be here)"
2022-12-07,"good skills for the future: adaptability and resilience. i think these are learnable!

hard to answer the question of ‘what jobs will be safe’, but humans always find new things to do, and the future will likely be amazing.

embracing change will be important."
2022-12-07,(and the big philosophical questions will have a big resurgence in the coming decades)
2022-12-07,💪
2022-12-06,congrats to OpenAI on winning the Turing Test https://t.co/eOuaACKXim
2022-12-06,ambition is infectious
2022-12-06,"unfortunately, so is affected disillusionment

choose who you hang out with carefully!"
2022-12-06,"🙏 to my colleagues for making it feel like i get to walk into the modern bell labs every day.

please consider joining us at openai! being in the room for research breakthroughs is awesome, the problems are interesting, the people are great, and we ship.

https://t.co/NP0FDNhyfj"
2022-12-05,"microsoft, and particularly azure, don’t get nearly enough credit for the stuff openai launches. they do an amazing amount of work to make it happen; we are deeply grateful for the partnership. 🙏 they have built by far the best AI infra out there."
2022-12-05,ChatGPT launched on wednesday. today it crossed 1 million users!
2022-12-05,"btw to clarify an earlier tweet: i think ""effective giving classic"", where people use spreadsheets to figure out the most effective ways to donate money for global health or whatever, is awesome.

that part of EA is imo the best thing to happen to philanthropy in a long time."
2022-12-04,"ok, we are going to ship a lot of this before the holidays.

merry early christmas! 🎄"
2022-12-04,what ChatGPT features/improvements do you want?
2022-12-04,"really appreciate all the feedback here. we are working on most of the popular requests, and will try to prioritize the others!"
2022-12-04,"i am a stochastic parrot, and so r u"
2022-12-04,"gentle reminder: takes like these are thoughtful, interesting, and may be a consequence of emitting the next words in a sequence.

but saying there is no understanding of meaning is quite a stretch.

https://t.co/CEZnGDM8jI"
2022-12-04,"a lot of what people assume is us censoring ChatGPT is in fact us trying to stop it from making up random facts.

tricky to get the balance right with the current state of the tech.

it will get better over time, and we will use your feedback to improve it."
2022-12-04,"also, we have not done any retraining yet; presumed improvements are just luck of the draw. we will do a retrain this week that will hopefully significantly improve things!"
2022-12-04,"(as a side note, it is funny that if you can ship a powerful AI you get a ton of angry DMs that have one sentence about how cool it is and 20 sentences about how it's not quite offensive enough and thus you are subtly destroying the world. we can add dial-a-troll setting later!)"
2022-12-03,"RT @gdb: Exciting but overlooked that ChatGPT is primarily an alignment advance—the base model (GPT-3.5) has been available in publicly for many months, but making it into a useful chat system required significant strides with reliably following the intent of the developer and the user."
2022-12-03,"Exciting but overlooked that ChatGPT is primarily an alignment advance—the base model (GPT-3.5) has been available in publicly for many months, but making it into a useful chat system required significant strides with reliably following the intent of the developer and the user."
2022-12-03,"iterative deployment is, imo, the only safe path and the only way for people, society, and institutions to have time to update and internalize what this all means."
2022-12-03,RT @paulg: @alexandr_wang You can't predict which kinds of work will turn out to be useful. Newton would have seemed to almost all his contemporaries to be wasting his time. (As indeed he was when he was working on alchemy and theology.)
2022-12-03,@alexandr_wang You can't predict which kinds of work will turn out to be useful. Newton would have seemed to almost all his contemporaries to be wasting his time. (As indeed he was when he was working on alchemy and theology.)
2022-12-03,"interesting watching people start to debate whether powerful AI systems should behave in the way users want or their creators intend.

the question of whose values we align these systems to will be one of the most important debates society ever has."
2022-12-03,"interesting to me how many of the ChatGPT takes are either ""this is AGI"" (obviously not close, lol) or ""this approach can't really go that much further"".

trust the exponential. flat looking backwards, vertical looking forwards."
2022-12-03,"(i used to be annoyed at being the villain of the EAs until i met their heroes*, and now i'm lowkey proud of it

*there are a few EA heroes i think are really great, eg Holden)"
2022-12-03,"it will take us some time, but we will continue to push to democratize access to this technology, and also to figure out how to make it so that it behaves in the way that individual users want (within some very broad bounds)"
2022-12-01,"also, it really makes all of us at openai so happy to see people enjoying chatgpt so much, and doing such creative things!"
2022-11-30,gentle reminder: all large language models are good at is predict the next word in a sequence based on previous words they've seen. that's all. there's no understanding of meaning whatsoever
2022-12-01,there is a lot more demand for ChatGPT than we expected; we are working to add more capacity
2022-12-01,"🥺
👉👈"
2022-11-30,ChatGPT could be a good debugging companion; it not only explains the bug but fixes it and explain the fix 🤯 https://t.co/5x9n66pVqj
2022-11-30,"today we launched ChatGPT. try talking with it here: 

https://t.co/uWra8LKFMN"
2022-11-30,"but this same interface works for all of that. this is something that scifi really god right; until we get neural interfaces, language interfaces are probably the next best thing."
2022-11-30,*got right! bad typo!!
2022-11-28,"you can see how deep the control of the MSM goes by the fact that they didn't pick ""polycule""

https://t.co/He1r3lfadb"
2022-11-28,and instead are subtly reminding us to question our recollection of the facts
2022-11-27,you can tell a lot about someone by whether they hate superdeterminism or many worlds more
2022-11-22,y’all got no chill
2022-11-22,"GPT-4 is rumored to be coming soon, sometime between Dec - Feb

- GPT-3 has 175 billion parameters
- GPT-4 supposedly has 100 trillion parameters

It is something like 500x more powerful than GPT-3

What kinda stuff will you be able to create with GPT-4!? https://t.co/6sEi9KhvFy"
2022-11-22,"anyway its gonna be awhile, seems broken, just says ""42"" to every prompt?!"
2022-11-20,"figure out the mission and then learn any skill you need to succeed at it

(instead of the other way around)"
2022-11-20,"on absolutely no one's 2022 bingo card was ""twitter becomes the hardest working tech company"""
2022-11-18,"people who claim to hate wealth and guiltily chase it anyway are both ineffective and miserable

the weirdest subset of startup founders for sure"
2022-11-18,"a surprising percentage of people get off thinking about calamity happening

i regret to inform you this site is very unlikely to be going anywhere"
2022-11-18,(regret bc id love all the time back)
2022-11-17,TIL: https://t.co/3oB1olIrGF
2022-11-17,i've been stopping myself from sending my EA tweetstorm for a week but idk how much more self-restraint i have https://t.co/VmYcH73RpT
2022-11-17,"but though i think EA is an incredibly flawed movement, i will say:

as individuals, EAs are almost always exceptionally nice, well-meaning people. the movement has some very weird emergent behavior, but i'm happy to see the self-reflection and feel confident it'll emerge better."
2022-11-17,i've been stopping myself from sending my EA tweetstorm for a week but idk how much more self-restraint i have https://t.co/VmYcH73RpT
2022-11-16,"prediction: agi gets built sooner that most people think, and takes much longer to ""change everything"" that most people imagine"
2022-11-16,(this is a little bit different than 'slow takeoff'--i think it will just take society longer to figure out what to really do with very powerful than intuition suggests)
2022-11-16,biggest indicator of a mid company is spending tons of energy on things other than making their core product/service better
2022-11-15,we all fr became conspiracy theorists this week
2022-11-14,"when you figure out you can figure out anything, you figure out everything"
2022-11-13,"anyone who succeeds fails a lot, and learns to dust themselves off faster each time

it's the people who fail and just stop trying that...fail"
2022-11-13,"failing sucks, but if you start relishing in others' failures, you will start moving towards the second camp

don't let failure become a character judgment unless it includes ethical lapses and then yes please dunk on it!"
2022-11-13,a lot of crazy stories start with too much amphetamines and end with not enough psychedelics
2022-11-12,RT @jachiam0: It seems like a huge miss to me that an enormous amount of ink gets spilled over speculative AGI tail risks predicted by people who are clearly converting anxiety disorders into made-up numbers about the likelihood of everyone dying within 10 years...
2022-11-12,It seems like a huge miss to me that an enormous amount of ink gets spilled over speculative AGI tail risks predicted by people who are clearly converting anxiety disorders into made-up numbers about the likelihood of everyone dying within 10 years...
2022-11-11,"""Which is more important to you? A low public profile, or getting to enjoy shitposting on Twitter?"" https://t.co/MvCkns93pT"
2022-11-11,"the people rooting the hardest for elon to fail are also the most dependent on twitter.

what's step two in their plan?"
2022-11-11,what does the dog do if it catches the car? what does the media do if twitter vaporizes?
2022-11-11,what happens when we realize we were just stochastic parrots all along?
2022-11-10,"recent dinner topic with a group of founders: what were your biggest cultural mistakes of the past few years?

top two:
1) going fully remote (though occasional remarkable exceptions like @gitlab)
2) hiring too many people from Big Tech and not resetting expectations"
2022-11-10,"use your life force well

probably no one ever dies wishing they'd spent more time being angry on the internet, or obsessing about the scandal of the hour"
2022-11-10,"you can just...do stuff

it isn't more complicated"
2022-11-10,"a thing about research i didn't get before openai:

frequently before a big idea gets figured it out, multiple teams can sort of detect it on radar through the fog. you get an idea of where it's going to be and the rough shape far before anyone actually lays eyes on it."
2022-11-09,"i think with inflation we have to update the quote to:

there are months where nothing happens, and there are hours where months happen."
2022-11-09,https://t.co/Io0OXbNPzi
2022-11-05,A visit to Helion: https://t.co/kBnT2p3qJI
2022-11-04,"when you are living through history, it feels like just another day"
2022-11-04,"have questions about building an AI-powered company or our new program (https://t.co/qeCVk7HlbJ)?

ask me and @bradlightcap anything!"
2022-11-04,"most of the world has lost the will to do big things--incredible alpha now in working on a big project.

most of the world has also lost the ability to think on a long time horizon.

combine the two and you'll be really happy!"
2022-11-04,"in the literal sense, most people are short innovation and long stasis"
2022-11-03,"i strongly believe in social welfare, investing in education, and universal healthcare.

i also believe the only the way we can have those things is if we get serious about celebrating competence and winning."
2022-11-03,i said there are very few _technology_ moats right now. there are a lot of other kinds of moats!
2022-11-02,"Amazing panel at @OpenAI old office with @sama 

Best quote: “very few to no one is Silicon Valley has a moat - not even Facebook” when asked what Jaspers moat is https://t.co/RmL6KENs75"
2022-11-02,"The OpenAI Startup Fund is launching Converge ($1M and advice) to help AI-powered startups.

I can't think of a more interesting time to start a startup in recent memory.

https://t.co/qeCVk7YodJ

Our best is that startups are best-positioned to win here given the rate of change."
2022-11-02,"Increasingly powerful AI systems will fundamentally change how tech products work, create new categories, and restructure entire industries. Starting with a clean slate is good.

@bradlightcap and I will do a Twitter AMA about this on Friday at 1 pm PT!"
2022-11-02,the way to succeed is to do the boring things extremely well
2022-11-01,"RT @dsiroker: Today we are launching Rewind: the search engine for your life https://t.co/05G3jkDnco

It’s a macOS app that enables you to find anything you’ve seen, said, or heard.

We’re also announcing that we’ve raised $10m at a $75m valuation led by Andreessen Horowitz.

(1/23) https://t.co/dknNFNr9td"
2022-11-01,"Today we are launching Rewind: the search engine for your life https://t.co/05G3jkDnco

It’s a macOS app that enables you to find anything you’ve seen, said, or heard.

We’re also announcing that we’ve raised $10m at a $75m valuation led by Andreessen Horowitz.

(1/23) https://t.co/dknNFNr9td"
2022-11-01,"RT @BorisMPower: OpenAI was able to strongly relax our policies by:
1. aligning our models to be great at following instructions https://t.co/dXb2ZFQ5H3
2. releasing a moderation endpoint, to help developers https://t.co/eFPbWB5UtS

Almost anything net-good is allowed now! https://t.co/vLNLIYPmSn"
2022-11-01,"OpenAI was able to strongly relax our policies by:
1. aligning our models to be great at following instructions https://t.co/dXb2ZFQ5H3
2. releasing a moderation endpoint, to help developers https://t.co/eFPbWB5UtS

Almost anything net-good is allowed now! https://t.co/vLNLIYPmSn"
2022-10-31,"The reason we’re seeing a resurgence in the GPT-3 apps is because OpenAI took the training wheels off.

No more restrictions around long-form writing or social posting using their api *and* you don’t need to be manually approved.

You can pretty much do anything now. https://t.co/Fo5mulMaC2"
2022-10-30,one of the best things about elon is a reminder of just how much one person can do
2022-10-27,"prop 30 is a disappointing effort funded by and benefiting @lyft to pay for its transition to electric vehicles.

CA will presumably at some point regret driving a large fraction of its revenue out of the state by even entertaining stuff like this. extreme short-term thinking."
2022-10-25,"challenge for companies based on LLMs--they can do a lot of technical work to get a current-generation model to perform ok, and then have it get beat by a next-gen model out of the box.

proprietary data and product are two good places to focus for building value--what else?"
2022-10-24,"""the price of housing should increase faster than inflation over time"" is catastrophically bad public policy.

in fact, an interesting framework for setting public policy would be ""make everything get less expensive over time""."
2022-10-24,national land value tax FTW!
2022-10-21,"good MO: be wrong most of the time, breathtakingly right once in awhile, and take a huge number of swings at the ball"
2022-10-19,"think with a very long time horizon, act with great short-term urgency and effectiveness, success guaranteed"
2022-10-19,"think with a very short time horizon, act with ""it will sort itself out eventually somehow"" vibes, get JPEGs on blockchain"
2022-10-19,"think with a very long time horizon, act with great short-term urgency and effectiveness, success guaranteed"
2022-10-19,"if you ever have a free eight hours, ask any academic why the academy is collapsing and what they think will replace it. always interesting!"
2022-10-19,"(on a more serious note, there's an incredible amount of extreme talent in academia. i personally think the incentives and culture are both broken, and im excited to see what happens as this talent gets to spread its wings!)"
2022-10-19,"the most interesting category of answer is ""i didn't get to start the work i really wanted to do until i was 40"" which seems...really bad"
2022-10-17,"the non-obvious PG superpowers are curiosity, optimism, energy, and mischievousness."
2022-10-17,10 yo asked how I know so much. I told him curiosity x time.
2022-10-17,"a generation of us tried to mimic PG as an investor. we knew what the non-obvious keys were, even if we couldn't get them quite right.

now you have a generation of investors that are mimics of the mimics, which gets you something from the uncanny valley."
2022-10-17,"there are a lot of ways to be a successful investor, but if you copy someone with an esoteric strategy and don't understand the full picture of what made them super successful, it doesn't usually work."
2022-10-17,should we crowdfund apple to hire an engineer to make personal hotspot work reliably?
2022-10-17,only thing standing between them and perfection imo
2022-10-16,"the crazy thing to me is that the DoD hadn't insisted on paying spacex for starlink service in ukraine in the first place

very sure other defense contractors get paid much more for much less value

the people who want to make elon out to be the bad guy here just want attention"
2022-10-14,"RT @jachiam0: as many of my spicy/unorthodox takes as possible, condensed to single tweets"
2022-10-14,"as many of my spicy/unorthodox takes as possible, condensed to single tweets"
2022-10-14,remarkable how astonishingly right--and how many years ahead of everyone else--@ilyasut has been on most of the big calls in the field in the past decade
2022-10-12,"boring prediction: the bay area will remain the center of gravity of tech for the next decade.

this will be true in spite of an ongoing heroic effort by state and local politicians to kill it."
2022-10-12,"the AI boom is enough on its own for this to be true, but it seems true for many other categories too.

the most impressive technical people seem to be moving here again, and the quality of conversations remains higher than anywhere else i've found."
2022-10-12,"another prediction: the next few $1T companies that get started will be ""in-person first""."
2022-10-10,how did we get to a world where people are only allowed to compete to be bad at things?
2022-10-07,❤️❤️❤️ @miramurati https://t.co/UK0NA7zBwU
2022-10-07,This tweet was posted against the advise of wiser colleagues
2022-10-04,"informality is how a lot of important stuff gets done

substance over style!"
2022-10-04,(the list of situations improved by formality is short)
2022-09-29,"the deadline for applying to the OpenAI residency is tomorrow.

if you are an engineer or researcher from any field who wants to start working on AI, please consider applying. many of our best people have come from this program!

https://t.co/cbDAjyp7DP

https://t.co/i7T2pMiMWO"
2022-09-27,"narrator: ""they weren't missing anything, it really was mostly just the obvious things"""
2020-01-10,What are we currently missing but is going to seem obvious in retrospect about the implications/significance of negative interest rates?
2022-09-27,turns out there was a third more complex thing...
2021-10-23,"Seems like there are two bad options: either the fed raises interest rates enough to slow inflation, and debt service consumes a huge amount of national budget, or inflation really runs.

It doesn't seem right that current inflation is very transitory."
2022-09-26,"in a few years, the important distinction won't be bot vs. human, but NPC (human or AI) vs. not"
2022-09-26,"we won't be able to be sure if text is human-generated or not, but it also won't be the most important question. 'independence' will be a very important metric."
2022-09-21,"near human-level speech recognition, open-sourced:

https://t.co/eeuTfXJkwy

(check out the examples, i find them difficult)"
2022-09-21,"open-sourcing CLIP helped enable a lot of amazing work by the ML community, and i am hopeful the same thing will happen here!"
2022-09-17,"surprising trend: for years it felt like a substantial fraction of the most impressive tech founders were under 28 or so. in the past few years, very few of them are.

what changed?"
2022-09-17,"(i think crypto is part of the story, but definitely not all of it)"
2022-09-17,"i wonder how quickly the internet is going to update to default assuming that all surprising content is generated by AI.

it may happen quite quickly, and it could be a pretty good way to handle some thorny issues."
2022-08-29,RT @paulg: There's nothing more dangerous than a profitable distraction.
2022-08-29,There's nothing more dangerous than a profitable distraction.
2022-08-29,"wiping out some student debt while allowing a broken system to keep piling it up is a pretty wild thing to watch, and such an admission of defeat.

this does nothing at all to solve the problem."
2022-08-29,"do what other countries do--make university free but hard, and have minimal extra BS that makes it expensive.

if not that, universities should underwrite their students' debt. if their graduates can't on average easily pay it back, it's at least mostly their fault."
2022-08-29,"Thrilled for @garrytan, and Y Combinator!

Garry is one of the most ""YC"" people in the whole industry. I'm excited to see what he'll do.

https://t.co/bpdknEYd2C"
2022-08-29,"@garrytan Also, it's a big deal imo that YC will have a president so active in local politics! I think YC can make a real difference here..."
2022-08-24,"Our alignment plans:

https://t.co/enFkrsNifv"
2022-08-20,"if you’re an openai api customer, i’d love your feedback.

what annoys you the most? what features do you want us to add?

if you looked at using the api and didn’t, why not?"
2022-08-19,"i am still amazed how most startup investors are great at understanding that startups can grow exponentially but don’t understand that markets can too

“the TAM is too small” has cost startup investors more money than any other often-repeated phrase i know of"
2022-08-19,(“the founder is too inexperienced” is a close second and “what’s the barrier to entry?” is a close third)
2022-08-17,RT @jaltma: @sama just @ me next time
2022-08-17,@sama just @ me next time
2022-08-17,"try a lot of things and do more of what works

work on things that are interesting but not prestigious

follow the path as it unfolds"
2022-08-17,"(don't get sucked into the trap of only feeling like you can work on the problem that your peers say is the most important thing in the world, and feeling immobilized if you can't do that right now)"
2022-08-17,"try a lot of things and do more of what works

work on things that are interesting but not prestigious

follow the path as it unfolds"
2022-08-16,it's so fun when a company is doing far better than external perception and everyone who works there has the shared secret of knowing they are going to crush it
2022-08-15,"i don't get how people can do serious thinking without a quiet environment.

i'm pretty happy in any quiet, calm office with natural or very good artificial light, but i struggle to think in loud spaces.

i wonder how much people liking WFH is this without realizing it."
2022-08-15,"AI is a rare example of an extremely hyped thing that almost everyone still underestimates the impact of in even the medium-term.

what are other examples of this from the past couple of decades besides the iPhone? i'm curious what we can learn."
2022-08-14,"i an confused about the agi safety vs longtermism debate. as far as i can tell, longtermism mostly is just about agi safety, with some ""and also bio risk!""s thrown in?"
2022-08-14,"also somewhat confused by the branding of longtermism, since most longermists seem to think agi safety is an existential risk in the very short term :)"
2022-08-07,"california has a $100 billion (!) budget surplus [1] and is ranked the 3rd worst state to live in [2]

where does all of the money go?

[1] https://t.co/gQOA678Z8B
[2] https://t.co/rCoh0sPbfc"
2022-08-04,"can you imagine how the media would handle the hunter biden saga if he were the son of a republican president?

https://t.co/U5eYdhVNy8"
2022-08-04,(also i'm still in the denial stage that there's a significant chance it's going to be trump vs. biden again in 2024...)
2022-08-02,traditional interviews are remarkably bad ways to make hiring decisions
2022-08-02,"right now there are many high-skill immigrants that are begging to come to the US and we don't let them

some day we'll beg them to come and they won't want to

this is an important-but-not-urgent policy disaster, and worse than it seems"
2022-08-01,"i'm concerned about the political landscape in the USA. some elements of the republican party are becoming increasingly anti-democratic.

the 2022 midterms could be an inflection point that leads to undermining elections in 2024. (or it could all be fine! but there's real risk.)"
2022-08-01,"some friends (led by @AriX) and experts made a list of the most impactful-per-dollar races of the 2022 cycle.

i just committed $250k and several friends are doing the same. please consider joining this effort and donating here; any amount helps!

https://t.co/5KnDqadT0W"
2022-08-01,"thought experiment: you have a startup. you hear about a new startup with smart, dedicated founders that is going to compete with you. are you most nervous if they are"
2022-07-27,"i suspect that to fully understand the universe, we need AGI in a similar way to needing a telescope to understand galaxies

our unaided faculties are not good enough, and we need better tools--or in this case, smarter tools--to help us make sense of reality"
2022-07-27,"also, i think AGI is probably necessary for humanity to survive--our problems seem too big to solve for us to solve without better tools :(

it's always hard to think about what tools will enable, but i cannot begin to imagine what we'll be able to achieve with the help of AGI"
2022-07-27,i think in 100 years people will look back at 2022 and be even more astonished at how bad our quality of life was than we are looking back at people who lived 1000 years ago
2022-07-27,(as long as we don't give up on the enlightenment values that got us here)
2022-07-27,"the cultural arc over the past few years from wokism to pessimism to nihilism is racist, sucks, and doesn’t even matter anyway"
2022-07-27,"on a serious note, at least the first two cultural movements had some real positives. i fear that nihilism is going to poison a generation for no gain."
2022-07-27,"the cultural arc over the past few years from wokism to pessimism to nihilism is racist, sucks, and doesn’t even matter anyway"
2022-07-25,"seeing very early but really impressive demos of using language interfaces to control computers.

the leverage on human ability and creativity we are going to see in the next decade from these tools will be quite something to behold!"
2022-07-21,"AI creative tools are going to be the biggest impact on creative work flows since the computer itself. we are all going to get amazing visual art, music, games, etc."
2022-07-21,"(also worth noting: ten years ago essentially no one predicted this. the common wisdom was that we would have self-driving cars very soon but that creativity was out of reach for AI, maybe forever.

predictions made today about how AI is going to develop are likely as bad.)"
2022-07-21,i think worldwide tech salaries may equalize pretty fast--doesn't make sense for companies to pay differently for the same work depending on where people live if everyone is remote anyway--and its going to have some pretty interesting effects
2022-07-20,"i love the smell of GPUs melting

https://t.co/1uyuLLPBaf"
2022-07-13,"please consider working at helion, especially if you are an electrical or mechanical engineer. fusion is close but the challenges of getting it deployed for global-scale use are immense.

https://t.co/cejVu4Pqn1 https://t.co/BdLG2c69gQ"
2022-07-13,"we have now given dall-e 2 access to 100,000 users. next goal: 1 million.

our team worked incredibly hard to make this happen; thank you!"
2022-07-11,"we did it reddit, usd flipped euro"
2022-07-05,"RT @worldcoin: when AGI hits its stride, the cost of all goods and services will fall. but unbounded abundance comes with unbounded inequality — and deeply unequal societies don’t last long. the solution is universal basic income and the financial wiring to distribute it
https://t.co/ixneY41OH7"
2022-07-04,"when AGI hits its stride, the cost of all goods and services will fall. but unbounded abundance comes with unbounded inequality — and deeply unequal societies don’t last long. the solution is universal basic income and the financial wiring to distribute it
https://t.co/ixneY41OH7"
2022-06-30,"seriousness looks like real action to help defend taiwan now.

unseriousness looks like changing twitter pfps to taiwanese flags later."
2022-06-30,lot of giant companies-to-be in this thread:
2022-03-09,"Request for (AI) Startups 

A 2022 list of AI-related startup ideas (I would use or see myself working on if I had the time)🧵"
2022-06-30,"most people are either techno-optimists or are willing to stand up for liberal democratic values.

if you are both, thanks, we need you!"
2022-06-30,"extreme persistence in researchers and founders–across years–seems like one of the biggest predictors of success

the slogs are demoralizing, and it’s easy to give up too quickly"
2022-06-30,"don't let your head get polluted with random things to think about, especially the ones that naturally suck up all the oxygen

controlling for this may be one of the biggest secrets to outlier success"
2022-06-29,inspiration has a very steep decay function
2022-06-28,"either have a strong culture and an important mission, or get taken over by The Current Thing"
2022-06-28,"acting with a long time horizon is the easiest ""free win"" i know of"
2022-06-28,"(and easier when you're young, so don't wait too long to get cracking on what you really want to do!)"
2022-06-28,"if i were writing a story about hyperinflation and feeling lazy, i would start with ""inflation relief checks""

https://t.co/w1aVGQrrc2"
2022-06-28,RT @unixpickle: Super excited to share our work on DALL-E 2 pre-training mitigations! https://t.co/xxNdPLzBOV
2022-06-28,Super excited to share our work on DALL-E 2 pre-training mitigations! https://t.co/xxNdPLzBOV
2022-06-27,"if you have power and want to keep it, exercise it with restraint"
2022-06-25,"treating a negotiation like war very rarely leads to long-term success, but is what many people do.
 
my negotiation principles: be fair and reasonable, figure out what the other side most wants and give it to them, assume good intent, and minimize your side’s tribal instincts."